Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Monday, May 29, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Lotsandlotsofgold 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Malibu Smart 2.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Embraceable 8.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Origami Girl 2.50 5.1 10-1
1 1 Lucky Phoenix 5.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Merrily Rush 8.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Gewurztraminer 0 0-1
3 3 Gewurztraminer 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Kennel Club 6.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Baytown Kitty Cat 15.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Five o’ Somewhere 2.50 3.4 6-1
7 7 Inmydreams 5.00 4 7-1
2 2 Baytown Chatterbox 12.00 4 7-1
4 4 Midnight Stormy 10.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Woodcourt 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Knockyoursocksoff 8.00 1 2-1
6 6 Mo Shiro 3.00 1.1 2-1
9 9 C C Cruise Control 10.00 1.2 2-1
7 7 Shoplifter 4.00 1.6 3-1
10 10 Santa Fe Gold 10.00 3 6-1
5 5 Cloudy Bay 12.00 4 8-1
3 3 Wonderfull Lady (FR) 2.50 4.3 8-1
4 4 Embrace Me 20.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Chica de Oro 20.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Nomadic Pride 10.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Storm Strategy 4.00 1 2-1
9 9 My Favorite Uncle 4.00 2.4 4-1
8 8 Noble Connection 6.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Royal Air Force 5.00 3 6-1
5 5 Moon Over Dubai 8.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Spuns Son 20.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 T Law 12.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Schmear 20.00 5.8 11-1
10 10 Northwind 3.50 6.4 12-1
2 2 Close Knit 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Carbonite 5.00 1 2-1
4 4 Baby Quinn 3.00 1.2 2-1
6 6 Lemon Drop Shot 2.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Multi Platinum 10.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Born Flawless 6.00 5.6 10-1
3 3 Vobiscum 3.50 SCRATCH
1 1 Morning Drive 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Sutherland 8.00 1 2-1
1 1 Angaston 3.50 3.6 7-1
8 8 Gregory’s Pride 3.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Friar Laurence 15.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Prime Factor 10.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Agent Peter Graves 4.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Let My People Go 30.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Major Blue 20.00 5 9-1
4 4 Diamond City 15.00 5.1 10-1
10 10 Sail At Sunrise 30.00 7.3 14-1
5 5 Shekky Shebaz 5.00 SCRATCH
13 13 One for Richie 3.50 SCRATCH
12 12 Ninja Warrior 3.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Willtorun 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Little Sister Sue 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Mystify 3.50 4.1 8-1
8 8 Itsablingthing 12.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Storm Haven 4.50 5.3 10-1
5 5 Red Hot Jeanie 4.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Bamberooski 6.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Brylee 6.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Goodbye Fog 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Winning Colors S.) – Winning Colors S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Echo Zulu 0.80 1 2-1
6 6 Fire On Time 3.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Marissa’s Lady 10.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Spirit Wind 3.50 1.7 3-1
4 4 Last Leaf 8.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Scarlet Stripe 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Sri Lanka 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Blessing the Flag 12.00 1.8 3-1
12 12 Holy Foley 12.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Mad Caper 12.00 3.3 6-1
10 10 Freydis the Red (FR) 3.50 4.5 9-1
5 5 Boppy 3.00 4.9 9-1
11 11 Rosy Tomorrows 8.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Harmonica 15.00 7.1 13-1
3 3 Abbreviation 15.00 8.4 16-1
6 6 Summertime Rose 12.00 9.2 17-1
4 4 Lady Dynamo 15.00 9.4 18-1
7 7 Dixie Supreme 30.00 9.7 18-1
13 13 First Hill 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Catherine Blaze 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 My Tallulah 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.