Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, May 25, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Cronus 5.00 1 2-1
4 4 River in Egypt 3.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Bon Bueno 2.50 2.3 4-1
5 5 Regimental 3.50 2.3 4-1
3 3 Reprehend 4.50 3.1 6-1
1 1 Divining Stone 5.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Go Otto Go 0 0-1
3 3 Beaudacious Colton 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Suga Steve 12.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Go Otto Go 4.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Techne 20.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Bernin Hot 5.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Fifth Avenue 3.50 5.1 10-1
9 9 Liberal Arts 4.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Cassius 12.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Prince of Power 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Byzantine 0 0-1
2 2 Luna Moth 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Byzantine 5.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Windy Bay 3.50 1.9 4-1
6 6 East Shore 2.50 3.6 7-1
5 5 Indy Again 4.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Prana 6.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Writeitontheice 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Out of Alcatraz 10.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Beocca 8.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Paid in Full 4.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Unstoppable Me 15.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Shazier 3.00 6.1 11-1
6 6 Sprinklehead 4.00 7.5 14-1
8 8 Ronithelimodriver 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Easy Time 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Whisper Not (GB) 1.60 2.6 5-1
8 8 Market Analysis 6.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Mr. Thunderstruck 8.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Flags Up 8.00 7 13-1
6 6 Legal Attack (GB) 8.00 7.1 13-1
5 5 Editorial Comment (ARG) 20.00 7.6 14-1
7 7 Gallant Guy 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Doubly Blessed 4.00 1 2-1
9 9 Upstriker 3.50 2 4-1
10 10 Hooperdrivesthboat 5.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Junior Bug 20.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Khozan’s Success 6.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Tetsu 5.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Test Pilot 10.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Brawndo 8.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Can’t Hush This 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Gormleys Got Game 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Dawny 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Beauxs Artes 3.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Non Violence 4.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Cancel This 2.50 2 4-1
4 4 Code for Success 8.00 4 8-1
6 6 Fine Cotton 8.00 6 11-1
5 5 Three Tipsy Chix 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Creative Minister 0 0-1
9 9 Creative Minister 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Trafalgar 12.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 War Campaign 6.00 6.9 13-1
1 1 Icarus 15.00 7.1 13-1
3 3 Search Engine 20.00 8 15-1
7 7 Commandperformance 12.00 8.1 15-1
2 2 Cooke Creek 3.50 8.2 15-1
5 5 Trident Hit 12.00 8.2 16-1
8 8 Tartufo 20.00 9.3 18-1
10 10 Gilded Age 3.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.