Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, May 19, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Unmatched 8.00 1 2-1
6 6 Aim Higher 4.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Deboisblanc 2.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Sapphire Nights 4.50 1.8 3-1
8 8 Green Chile 12.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 George’s Honey 5.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Honor Cat 8.00 2.9 6-1
7 7 You’re Forever 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Sunday Shoes 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Dazzling Blue 1.60 1.9 4-1
3 3 B G Warrior 10.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Promise of Hope 8.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Holiday Decision 20.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Back to Ohio 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Cheetah Miss 0 0-1
5 5 Gloriette 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Argan 8.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Cheetah Miss 3.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Tx Women for Arts 3.50 3.2 6-1
8 8 Little Music 12.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 V V’s Dream 4.50 4 8-1
2 2 Hi’iaka 10.00 5 9-1
7 7 Vibe Check 8.00 6.4 12-1
9 9 Titania’s Dream 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 High Front 1.60 1 2-1
2 2 B D Valeski 5.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Roman Giant 8.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Gilded Ruler 10.00 3.5 7-1
12 12 Brazen Boy 10.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Laver 20.00 5.6 11-1
10 10 Arabian Prince 15.00 6 11-1
7 7 Group Eighteen 20.00 7.2 14-1
11 11 Trust Daddy 8.00 7.6 14-1
13 13 Counterstrike 15.00 8 15-1
5 5 Fingers 20.00 8.4 16-1
4 4 King of Song 12.00 8.7 16-1
9 9 True Jedi 10.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Lark’s Mischief 3.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Badgeball 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Angkor 3.00 SCRATCH
17 17 Nullarbor 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Bizzy Girl 5.00 1 2-1
5 5 Just Like Magic 2.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Gray Frost 5.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Oath of Allegiance 2.50 2.7 5-1
1 1 Lily’s Creed 12.00 2.9 6-1
4 4 Roja Ligera 3.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Race Driver 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Hurricane Highway 3.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Best of Greeley 3.50 4.1 8-1
3 3 High Tone 4.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Crime Spree 12.00 6.6 13-1
2 2 Game Boy Benny 6.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 Boise 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Mac Daddy Too 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Stonevicious 5.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Bodock 3.50 4.8 9-1
3 3 On K P 10.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Faithful Ruler 6.00 6.7 13-1
7 7 Pico d’Oro 12.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 I’m Wide Awake 8.00 7.6 14-1
2 2 Midaswellrun 4.50 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Price Talk 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Hidden Stash 4.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Henley’s Joy 12.00 2.9 6-1
5 5 Mahaamel 5.00 3 6-1
12 12 Microphone (IRE) 6.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Rupp N Ready 20.00 6 11-1
7 7 Stolen Base 6.00 6.2 12-1
10 10 Punch Hard 30.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 February Son 30.00 8.4 16-1
13 13 Risk Manager 6.00 8.6 16-1
1 1 Altazor (ARG) 10.00 9.6 18-1
14 14 Search Engine 4.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Johny’s Fireball 3.50 SCRATCH
17 17 Commandperformance 3.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Rarified Flair 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Bear Oak 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Shortlist 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Witch of November 10.00 1 2-1
4 4 Coloratura 10.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Get By 10.00 4.6 9-1
11 11 Terranova 30.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Hammerdonhappiness 10.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Keen Contender 15.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Markswoman 6.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Fashion Idol 4.00 6.6 12-1
10 10 Paddy Gal 15.00 7.6 14-1
12 12 Callie’s Passion 5.00 9.1 17-1
8 8 Dial Toni 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Doodle Doo 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Valiant Praise 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Xtraordinarymotion 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Backside Buzz 3.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Circle Back Jack 6.00 1.4 3-1
8 8 Retained 2.50 1.9 4-1
7 7 Pledgeofallegiance 4.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Aeronaut 20.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Supremely 5.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Schmoozin 6.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Keen On You 20.00 8 15-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.