Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, November 9, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Gus Gus 4.50 1 2-1
8 8 Awesome Charge 2.00 1.2 2-1
7 7 Kenric 5.00 1.5 3-1
9 9 Loco 12.00 2 4-1
4 4 Azzurro 4.50 2.1 4-1
1 1 Scotch No Rocks 20.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Private Connie 15.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 Silvestre 20.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Winged Foot 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Canary 4.00 1 2-1
2 2 Bourbonwithginger 5.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Edgee Angel 1.80 2.6 5-1
4 4 Joy Enamorada 15.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Super Cat Lady 1.20 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Dallas Volunteer 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Four Dawn 4.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 One Way Or Another 4.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Big Java 3.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Spare a Dime 3.50 4.8 9-1
4 4 Fracing Nasty 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Sand Mountain 8.00 1 2-1
9 9 Drena’s Star 6.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Cool Runnings 4.50 2.9 6-1
7 7 Big Bella Brown 8.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Gemo Rain 8.00 3.6 7-1
10 10 Higher Authority 5.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Chief Howcome 15.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Released 5.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Forevamo 6.00 5.8 11-1
11 11 Eli 20.00 7.4 14-1
3 3 Feeling It 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Cambiaso 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Connect Me 8.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Big Beemster 8.00 4.3 8-1
10 10 Bread Winner 4.50 4.5 9-1
4 4 Grimes 8.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 O’Conner Sunset 4.00 6.6 13-1
3 3 Riley Bee 20.00 7 13-1
12 12 Talkscheap 15.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 Chili Red 20.00 8.1 15-1
8 8 Nikolas Arthur 12.00 8.7 16-1
9 9 Parachutebattalion 20.00 8.9 17-1
11 11 Caesar’s Ghost 15.00 9 17-1
13 13 Duplantis 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Drive for Fun 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 American Icon 2.50 1.5 3-1
1 1 Carbonite 3.50 3.4 6-1
3 3 Marching 8.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Pledgeofallegiance 3.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Rum ‘n Tonic 6.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 My Grass Is Blue 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Floki’s Flight 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Hitting Bombs 4.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Mr. Yasuda 6.00 4 8-1
8 8 Triple Option 12.00 4.5 8-1
7 7 War Room 3.50 5.6 11-1
6 6 Mayan 4.00 6 11-1
4 4 Under the Gun 6.00 6.6 12-1
5 5 Top Secret 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Classic Moment 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 Ben Diesel 2.50 2.7 5-1
4 4 Policy Option 10.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Bourbon Thunder 6.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Grantham 3.50 4.3 8-1
7 7 Hippodrome 10.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Legionnaire 8.00 7 13-1
8 8 Minnesota Ready 6.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Please Be Kind 3.00 1 2-1
10 10 Somebody Loves Me 10.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Cami Cat 4.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Rolleston 10.00 3.8 7-1
11 11 Penitent’s Rose 10.00 5 9-1
4 4 Puglia 3.50 5.3 10-1
7 7 Charley Rude 6.00 6 11-1
8 8 Magic Palace 15.00 7.8 15-1
9 9 Playful Kitten 20.00 9 17-1
6 6 Perfection Saver 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Bidofhoney 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.