Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, November 2, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 My Favorite Uncle 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Seven and Seven 4.00 1.3 3-1
1 1 Big Pete 10.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Paid in Full 6.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Lead Actor 6.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Angel of the North 5.00 6.6 13-1
6 6 Levy 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Bankroll 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Romancer 3.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Big Boss Ben 4.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Oncoming Train 2.50 3.3 6-1
5 5 Right of Rush 15.00 6 11-1
4 4 Sono Grato 3.50 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Bourbon Therapy 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Cortese 1.40 1.9 4-1
2 2 El Gavilan 20.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Lord Grantham 3.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 I’m Wide Awake 10.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Back Beat 6.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Lighter Knot 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Perfect Rose 15.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Cotton Candy Annie 1.60 4.5 8-1
5 5 Gray Frost 10.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Lexington Diamond 8.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Victory’s Flame 6.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Tribal Spirit 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Biggie 10.00 1 2-1
1 1 Beyblader 8.00 1.3 2-1
3 3 Madison Luvs Duke 3.50 3.6 7-1
8 8 Liam the Brave 10.00 4 8-1
7 7 Mint 3.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Crow’s Nest 2.50 6.2 12-1
6 6 Majestic Flag 8.00 7.7 15-1
5 5 Paid Twice 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Awesome Aaron 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 St Andrews 3.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Lightning Struck 6.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Classic King 15.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Kunshan Bridge 8.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Bonus Appreciation 15.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Shinnecock Hills 5.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Texas Red Hot 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Boldish 12.00 1 2-1
1 1 Telephone Talker 3.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Emerald Express 8.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Wayakin 2.50 2.3 4-1
4 4 Mo’s Mojo 8.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Tango Charlie 4.50 3.2 6-1
7 7 W W Crazy 8.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 American Tattoo (ARG) 12.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Soaring Bird 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Common Bond 6.00 1 2-1
4 4 Scarlet Fusion 3.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Alejandro 3.50 2.5 5-1
6 6 Full Charge 20.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Offlee Naughty 3.50 6 11-1
3 3 Simovitch 15.00 6 11-1
8 8 Western River 2.50 7.3 14-1
5 5 Silver Dust 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Nepotism 8.00 1 2-1
8 8 French Composer 20.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Zippin Gigi 6.00 3.5 7-1
17 17 Tiwanaku 3.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Winterwood 10.00 4.2 8-1
15 15 Stellar Tap 5.00 4.2 8-1
13 13 Roughin the City 30.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Badgeball 12.00 9.6 18-1
16 16 Fair Dinkum 3.50 12.5 24-1
2 2 Master of the Ring 5.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Moms Moon 6.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Bern N Ash 20.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Sutherland 3.00 SCRATCH
18 18 Arabian Prince 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Britain’s Kitten 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Baj 6.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Mount Rundle 2.50 SCRATCH
10 10 Cadamosto (IRE) 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Girl Afraid 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Redhairedcolleen 30.00 5.9 11-1
9 9 Divisibility 3.00 6 11-1
2 2 Unkept Secret 4.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Homecoming Queen 4.00 6.8 13-1
10 10 Ragsdale 12.00 6.9 13-1
5 5 Susie’s Saver 8.00 8 15-1
4 4 Good Tohave Around 15.00 8.1 15-1
8 8 Dreaming Always 10.00 8.5 16-1
6 6 Right Now 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.