Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, October 15, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Backsideofthemoon 1.80 1 2-1
7 7 Second of July 4.50 1 2-1
4 4 Carom 8.00 1.2 2-1
2 2 Pit Boss 15.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Frosted Grace 3.50 1.9 3-1
1 1 Mr. Tip 12.00 3 6-1
8 8 Money for Mischief 20.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Blue Steel 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Evaluate 3.00 1 2-1
13 13 Solomon Vandy 12.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Read On 15.00 2.2 4-1
12 12 Spanish Doubloon 3.50 2.7 5-1
6 6 Bayou Chrome 20.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Curly Larry and Mo 12.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Gucci Boy 6.00 4.1 8-1
10 10 Game Warden 6.00 4.2 8-1
9 9 Iconicus 10.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Joint Venture 15.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Iron Crusader 15.00 9.7 18-1
5 5 Royal Salute 12.00 10.1 19-1
14 14 The Jackal 10.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Decanted 2.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Simply Wow 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Tizzy Tantrum 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Legendary Gift 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Supertaleofhoudini 4.50 3.7 7-1
2 2 Forever Home 4.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Ball Lightning 12.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Weekend Fun 6.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Bizzy Echo 8.00 6.1 11-1
5 5 Sue Ellen Mishkin 2.50 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Macron 1.80 1 2-1
5 5 Cost Basis 2.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Shadow Matter 8.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Lt. Junior Grade 4.50 4.6 9-1
1 1 Emerald Express 6.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Aggressivity 20.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Money Mike 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 In Love (BRZ) 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Kentucky Ghost 5.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Winfromwithin 4.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Megacity 6.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Greyes Creek 15.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Current 15.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Mouillage (FR) 2.00 5.5 10-1
9 9 Mr. Wireless 20.00 8 15-1
6 6 Spectacular Gem 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Inventing 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Forever After All 3.50 1.1 2-1
7 7 Sunny River 1.60 2.3 4-1
3 3 Fine Cotton 6.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Sweet Lady Ivanka 10.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Oma the Great 15.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Sha Girl 30.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Mo Happy 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Worthington 3.50 1 2-1
11 11 Ashcroft 3.00 2.5 5-1
14 14 Miranda Rights 4.00 2.7 5-1
12 12 Giovannino 6.00 3 6-1
3 3 Dust Storm 12.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Six Missions 4.50 3.9 7-1
9 9 Team Leader 10.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Tollgate Canyon 20.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Daryl’s Bolt 15.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Hardy Choice 15.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 My Sanctuary 15.00 8.8 17-1
10 10 Just for Luck 30.00 10.4 20-1
15 15 Permafrost 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Safe Trip Home 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Millers Rite 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Code One 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Scenic Masterpiece 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Cancel This 2.00 3.4 7-1
4 4 Napa Candy 8.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Your So Sillea 3.50 3.7 7-1
1 1 Ain’t Broke 4.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Rockie Causeway 15.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Dame Joviale 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Queen Elizabeth Ii Challenge Cup S. Presented By Dixiana) – Queen Elizabeth Ii Challenge Cup S. Presented By Dixiana

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 McKulick (GB) 1.00 1 2-1
7 7 Paris Peacock (IRE) 10.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 California Angel 15.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Bellabel (IRE) 5.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Gina Romantica 3.50 3.8 7-1
3 3 She’s Gone 30.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 New Year’s Eve 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Beverly Park 4.50 1 2-1
9 9 Divine Leader 15.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Ultimate 8.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Alexandros 12.00 4 8-1
5 5 Montauk Daddy 15.00 4 8-1
1 1 Don’t Forget 15.00 4.1 8-1
11 11 The Queens Jules 6.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Hooperdrivesthboat 20.00 6.8 13-1
6 6 Big Sport 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 My Man Flintstone 6.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Feast 2.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.