Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, September 30, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Open Says Me 0 0-1
2 1 Backstreet Affair 3.50 1 2-1
1 5 Open Says Me 6.00 2.7 5-1
3 2 Candy Kick 3.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Junellia 3.50 3.3 6-1
5 4 Our Lady Nelson 6.00 3.7 7-1
1A 7 Tian’ai Road 6.00 6.3 12-1
4 3 Landed Gentry 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Zippin Gigi 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Blue Kentucky 4.50 2.1 4-1
1 1 Malibu S S 4.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Waita Minute Hayes 8.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Doctor Nash 12.00 4 7-1
7 7 Ready Pursuit 15.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Prayforpeace 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Trashtalkinyankee 6.00 1 2-1
4 4 Seal Beach 3.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Dr. Perry 1.60 2.2 4-1
3 3 You Vee Cee 6.00 3 6-1
5 5 New Year’s Fever 20.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Air Combat 2.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Sweet Annabella 3.50 1 2-1
8 8 Forever Home 3.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Eclipsed 5.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Sweet Ginger 20.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Sis Boom Bob 4.50 4.4 8-1
7 7 Louella Street 4.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Pappysaysyes 8.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Green Bananas 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Malibu Toast 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 Nomadic Pride 3.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 Black Forest 3.50 1.7 3-1
5 5 Valiant Praise 4.50 2.8 5-1
8 8 Tell Me When 4.50 3.9 7-1
3 3 Rocket City 8.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Rye Munny 15.00 6.9 13-1
4 4 Optimizme 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Eleven Central 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Digital 3.00 4 8-1
6 6 Peekacho 5.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Roderick 4.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Claytnthelionheart 4.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Palazzi 8.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Major General 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Queen of Chill 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Justifying 3.00 1.6 3-1
8 8 Two Minute Drill 3.50 1.7 3-1
1 1 Gavinera 10.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Miss Quest 10.00 2.4 5-1
2 2 American Odalisque 8.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Take Shape 12.00 2.9 6-1
3 3 Stellar Lily 15.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Saucy Secret 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Alejandro 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Scarlet Fusion 3.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Search Engine 8.00 5 9-1
4 4 Decision Maker 2.50 5.4 10-1
6 6 Common Bond 12.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 American Hero 12.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Uninvited Guest 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Day Trade 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 How Did He Do That 4.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Fight Fiercely 5.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 King Me 8.00 3 6-1
4 4 Don’t Let Go 8.00 3 6-1
7 7 Yacht Rock (IRE) 8.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Boudin 10.00 3.4 7-1
9 9 Bolt Above 10.00 3.7 7-1
10 10 Mamba Forever 10.00 4 8-1
6 6 Arrogant Rider 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.