September 24, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Silencing | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Joezine | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Only Show in Town | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Candy Island | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Yellow Creek Road | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Isabis | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Boots n’ Jeans | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Shez Fired Up | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Amongst Friends | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Flags Up | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dark Timber | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Spend Benjamins | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cold as Hell | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Master of Arms | 5.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Constitutional Law | 2.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Swiss Guard | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Dixie Fury | 12.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lord Grantham | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mobot | 5.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Warhorse West | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Big Beemster | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | My Sweet Lord | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Talk to Tokey | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Eternally Grateful | 8.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Santino’s Fantasy | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mataro | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Shortly | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Full Mag | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Catchusifyoucan | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Aidanike | 1.80 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cadeau de Paix | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Habobanero | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Jills Passion | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Radiantrithym | 5.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Funnybet | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Tommy Gun | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Per Diem | 4.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | C J All the Way | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Papa Rocket | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Paid in Full | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Golden Luna | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Cat Five | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Apollo Rising | 15.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Left Pocket Money | 30.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dormir | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Strings | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Guided Arrow | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Birthday Munnings | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Premium | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Zed | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Chitwood | 8.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Carcano | 8.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Coal Boss | 15.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Shaky Pants | 12.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Solar Power | 10.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 6 | Fliparino | 12.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Shake Up | 10.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Joint Venture | 15.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Monba Quake | 20.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 1A | 15 | Devils Red | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Mislead | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Be Ruthless | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Seneca Overnight S.) – Seneca Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Turnerloose | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Falconet | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cocktail Moments | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Skratch Kat | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Valentina Day | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sixtythreecaliber | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Take a Stand | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Harrods Creek S.) – Harrods Creek S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Conagher | 1.20 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gunite | 1.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Double Thunder | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Friar Laurence | 20.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Strava | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hippodrome | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Editorial Comment (ARG) | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Dogwood S.) – Dogwood S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Echo Zulu | 1.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tarabi | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gunning | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Colorful Mischief | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Last Leaf | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Chasing Fireflies | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Wicked Halo | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Bourbon Trail S.) – Bourbon Trail S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Creative Minister | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Home Brew | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | War Campaign | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gilded Age | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Warrior Johny | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Big Blue Line | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ethereal Road | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Maximum Impact | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Saint Tapit | 4.50 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Through the Cracks | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ladan | 30.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Frostalicious | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Birdie Rose | 2.50 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cosmic Rewind | 12.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Peaceful Moment | 8.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dooit | 8.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Happysecret | 6.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tribal Spirit | 10.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ring Twice | 15.00 | 11.2 | 21-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Pioneer Parade | 8.00 | 11.4 | 22-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Blaze Beauty | 20.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.