September 18, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Stupendous | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gin N Sin | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sweet Valeria | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Start Class | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Contessina | 2.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bird Hunter | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Afleet Arlene | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Marina’s Gold | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Frigid Lady | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | She’ll Never Know | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Marsanne | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Unified Decision | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | My Lady Luna | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Captive Star | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tamara’s Way | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Bargain Hunter | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Tonal Impact | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mr Creed | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Moon Dog | 12.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kiss Principal | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Yono | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mega Charlie | 3.50 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Easy Big Boy | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Collectorate | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 12 | Trepat | 3.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Talkscheap | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bread Winner | 8.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Gold Luck | 4.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Olazabal | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Once Upon a Dream | 6.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Dixie Fury | 15.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Ransam Paynter | 12.00 | 11.4 | 21-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Loony | 20.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Tizride | 20.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
| 1A | 13 | Hill of Tara | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Dawnland | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cant Be Touched | 2.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | High Speed | 5.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Feeling Happy | 6.00 | 1.9 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | I Cross My Heart | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mohaylady | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Maasai Warrior | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Absolute Courage | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Bourbon On Fire | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Town Branch | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Chiron | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mint | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Redemption Time | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rampatious | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Fair Dinkum | 6.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mo Happy | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Wits and Wagers | 20.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Fee | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Windy Bay | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Save Your Tears | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Saenz | 4.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Pretty Mischievous | 3.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Souper Explosive | 6.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Klassy Bridgette | 8.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Positano Sunset | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | She’s Magic | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Graceful Union | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Paint Me Perfect | 20.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Into Love | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Star Pose | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Indy Again | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Roman Goddess | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Mount Athos | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Pure Panic | 12.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Emerald Express | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Shackleford Strong | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Alebrije | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Belfast Boy | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lucky Promise | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Red Label | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | El Franco | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hot Pastrami | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Roc’s Princess | 20.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Duplicitous | 12.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Implosion | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Ice Orchid | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Aunt Naughty | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Take Care | 3.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Stanley Market | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Bella Runner | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Rockie Causeway | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dame Joviale | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dorothea | 6.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Ring Me Darling | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Respectful | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Outlining | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Nosilverspoonshere | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Shipman | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Workinfromhome | 30.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | York Tavern | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Call Me Fast | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Reserve Currency | 4.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Eagle Feather | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Boco | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Higginson | 4.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Majestic Flag | 12.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Electromagnetic | 10.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lysander | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.