September 17, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Pistol Or Shotgun | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Alpha Whiskey | 4.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Edge of Glory | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Conspiracy Fact | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Southern Sense | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Loco | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pudge Boy Palace | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Big Woo | 6.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Star Entertainer | 8.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Angel of the North | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 13 | Midvale | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tiny Temper | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 2 | Comparative | 2.50 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Right Now | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Always Laughing | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Everylittlething | 12.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bolt for Allison | 12.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Peacock Lass | 12.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Adiva | 15.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Malawnia | 12.00 | 11.4 | 22-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Dagmar | 15.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Sweet Sweetfantasy | 15.00 | 13 | 25-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Key to Success | 15.00 | 13 | 25-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Endless Sunset | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Winterwood | 12.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Stellar Tap | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Nepotism | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pledgeofallegiance | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cousin Larry | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | El Ahijado | 30.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Miacomet | 4.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Mega Charlie | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Quick to Blame | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Writeitontheice | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| Stellar Tap | 12 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Please Be Kind | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lady Commander | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Jag Warrior | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Rolleston | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Sunny River | 1.80 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Sinfiltre | 3.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Luv Dragon | 3.50 | 10.9 | 21-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Beyond Perfection | 12.00 | 11.4 | 22-1 |
| 3 | 3 | American Band | 12.00 | 11.9 | 22-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sweet Lady Ivanka | 4.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Gun Moll | 20.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tyrona | 20.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Mo Happy | 15.00 | 13.4 | 25-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Isabel de Clare | 30.00 | 14 | 26-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Loggins | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 15 | 15 | King d’Oro | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Release McCraken | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Create Trouble | 6.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Lugan Knight | 8.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kupp | 8.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Raise Cain | 12.00 | 11.4 | 21-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Speed Institute | 12.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Easy Action | 10.00 | 12.2 | 23-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Communication Memo | 12.00 | 12.6 | 24-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Daryl’s Bolt | 12.00 | 13 | 25-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Army Star | 15.00 | 13.2 | 25-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Seas of Normandy | 12.00 | 13.4 | 25-1 |
| 1 | 1 | King Me | 12.00 | 13.4 | 25-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Texas Pride | 15.00 | 14.1 | 27-1 |
| 16 | 16 | Egyptian King | 15.00 | 16 | 30-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Drive for Fun | 10.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 13 | 13 | American Icon | 5.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Gulfstream Way | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Brigadier General | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Unbridled Honor | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Tiz Rye Time | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Uber Kirk | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Policy Option | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 2 | Film Star | 4.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ignitis | 30.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Go Emi | 30.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 |
| 1A | 15 | Air Combat | 4.00 | 12.2 | 23-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Pro Oxidant | 5.00 | 13.8 | 26-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Olliemeister | 15.00 | 14.3 | 27-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sunday Breeze | 30.00 | 15 | 28-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Open Mind S.) – Open Mind S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Bell’s the One | 1.20 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sconsin | 1.60 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Joyful Cadence | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cheetara (CHI) | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Club Car | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Locust Grove S.) – Locust Grove S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Li’l Tootsie | 8.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Envoutante | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Crazy Beautiful | 1.80 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Played Hard | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Princess of Cairo | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gold Spirit (CHI) | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Iroquois S.) – Iroquois S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Zaici | 30.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Echo Again | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Damon’s Mound | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Jace’s Road | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Curly Jack | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hayes Strike | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Jin Tong | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Honed | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Confidence Game | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| Damon’s Mound | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Louisville Thoroughbred Society S.) – Louisville Thoroughbred Society S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Isolate | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Top Gunner | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Miles Ahead | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Necker Island | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Manny Wah | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Robo Man | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Baytown Bear | 30.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | A C Expressway | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| Baytown Bear | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Pocahontas S.) – Pocahontas S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Naughty Gal | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Justa Warrior | 4.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Grand Love | 4.50 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Southlawn | 5.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Boss Lady Bailey | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Shoplifter | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Fun and Feisty | 6.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Jet Setting | 8.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kiss Me On Oconee | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Need Some Money | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Friendlypersuasion | 8.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Outofnothingatall | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
| Justa Warrior | 13 | 25-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.