September 5, 2022 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Souffle | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Showemyourheels | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Atomic Girl | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Moonage Daydream | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 16 | 16 | Boogie Down Bronx | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Luna’s Song | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Fleetfooted | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bode’s Girl | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Spoils of War | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Three Girls | 4.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kara Para | 6.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Slow Down Summer | 6.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Camp Akeela | 12.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lady Quinn | 12.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Striking Melody | 20.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Reign of Thunder | 30.00 | 16 | 30-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Blame It On Daddy | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mr. Marlin | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Impressor | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Atlanta’s Acuna | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Uncle Marty | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Somama Beach | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hyper Speed | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Eternal Glory | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Flashy Alex | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Bernard Baruch H.) – Bernard Baruch H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Winters Back | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Emaraaty (GB) | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dynadrive | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | City Man | 1.60 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ocala Dream | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mouillage (FR) | 2.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Unlock | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 13 | 13 | True Empress | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Smokin’ Hot Kitty | 6.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 15 | 15 | Guajira | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Infringement | 50.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mostly Harmless | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Union Dolly | 4.50 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Clara Belle | 20.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Crosstalk | 15.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Linn Pier | 30.00 | 12.2 | 23-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tizmet | 12.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Silken Dollar | 8.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Crowding Out | 1.00 | 13.6 | 26-1 |
| 11 | 11 | My Delicious | 50.00 | 14.8 | 28-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Lemon Taffy | 50.00 | 15 | 28-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | New York Banker | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Aidanike | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Spooky Road | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Daily Briefing | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sister Supream | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | She Caught My Eye | 3.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Backyard Money | 1.80 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Waterville | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 9 | 10 | Stella Mars | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 13 | 14 | Caramocha | 2.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lookin to Fly | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Fist Full of Dice | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | U Guys Are No Fun | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Tales of Makenna | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 4 | Whatlovelookslike | 3.50 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 10 | 11 | Russiarussiarussia | 4.50 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 3 | 2 | I’m Fine | 10.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
| 1A | 9 | Just Ok Is Not Ok | 3.50 | 10.6 | 20-1 |
| 11 | 12 | Elegant Laoban | 20.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 |
| 2 | 1 | New Ginya | 4.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 |
| 12 | 13 | Sweet Mystery | 1.60 | 14 | 26-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Sounds Spooky | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Radio Red | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Arctic Arrogance | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Pagett | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Leftembehind | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Garth Road | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Nobilis | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ulumalu | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Wanna Winna | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lt. Mitchell | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| Arctic Arrogance | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Bal Harbour | 8.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Night Ops | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Healing | 30.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | War Stopper | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Portos | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Grumps Little Tots | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Pioneer Spirit | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | American Tattoo (ARG) | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Air Attack | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gentleman Joe | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| Grumps Little Tots | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Splendid Summer | 8.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rally Squirrel | 10.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Digital Software | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Inflation Adjusted | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Maseta | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Reckless Spirit | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Voliero | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Assiduously (GB) | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 15 | 15 | Corkman | 3.50 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 10 | 10 | I Am the Law | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Parquetry | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Calloway Peak | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sonic Speed | 15.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
| 16 | 16 | Bold Victory | 1.60 | 9.6 | 18-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Grecian Pharoah | 30.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 |
| 9 | 9 | War Strategy | 8.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 |
| Bold Victory | 17 | 32-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Jane Grey | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 9 | 9 | More Ammo | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Mashnee Girl | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cocktail Moments | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Shalimar Gardens | 3.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Wicked Hot | 6.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Minute Waltz | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Len Lo Lady | 8.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Big City Momma | 12.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Vienna Code | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Hopeful S.) – Hopeful S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forte | 0 | 0-1 | |||
| 4 | 4 | Gulfport | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mo Strike | 2.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Forte | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bourbon Bash | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Western Ghent | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Blazing Sevens | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Tosconova Beauty | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fancy Feline | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Tellaperfecttale | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bankers Daughter | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ribot’s Valentine | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Missing Link | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Steal My Heart | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Juliana’s Rose | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Liberty Flame | 15.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Sue Ellen Mishkin | 6.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cupid’s Heart | 3.50 | 11 | 21-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.