September 5, 2022 Del Mar Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Written Dance | 0 | 0-1 | ||||
| 1 | 1 | Tall Boy | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Prayforourcountry | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pat’s Paddock Pick | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Crowning Gold | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Written Dance | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Vinny the Coin | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Smokem Howard | 50.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gotcha Lookin | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Kirstenbosch | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ole Silver | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kristi’s Tiger | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Trouville | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Take a Leap | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Capstone Girl | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Smoothlikebuttah | 5.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Picota (GB) | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sai Con (FR) | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Trebbiano | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Law Abiding | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Virat | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | To Speight Her | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Honeymoon Suite | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Apfel | 6.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Exclamation | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Our Journey | 20.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Grazed | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 13 | Icy Flavor | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 98 | Storming Chrome | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 11 | Krahenbuhl | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Li’l Grazen | 0 | 0-1 | |||
| 1 | 1 | Seven Sisters | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 9 | 9 | A Broken Breeze | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Li’l Grazen | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Blame It On Rose | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Song of Fire | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Righteously | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Chrome of Our Own | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sugar Kisses | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lady Protonico | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Alvaaro | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Tom’s Surprise | 1.60 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Niles Channel | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Big Buzz | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Respect the Hustle | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Table for Ten | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dillon Rocks | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Nolongerahobby | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 98 | Leprino | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Miss Baylee | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Don’t Ju Forget | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Backstreet Affair | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mining Crypto | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Blazing Bardot | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tamarando Coast | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Valentine Ghost | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Fried Asparagus | 5.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Reluctant | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Shez Our Arch | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | The Big Cake | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Big Seven | 30.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 14 | 13 | Shish Kabob | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 98 | J and M Express | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Tranquility Lake S.) – Tranquility Lake S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Samurai Charm | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Teddy’s Barino | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Velvet Slippers | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ever Smart | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bye Bye Bertie | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lisette | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | La Castiglione | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Perfectible Lady | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Beachgrass | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rock the Bourbon | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Run for My Honey | 15.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Witch Moon | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Ice Queen | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Girl Ranger | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Blossoming | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Street Shadow | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ropers N Wranglers | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Movinglikeawinner | 50.00 | 11.9 | 22-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Noble Hearted | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Rvalentina | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Consternation (IRE) | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Generous Portion S.) – Generous Portion S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uncontrollable | 0 | 0-1 | |||
| Uncontrollable | 0 | 0-1 | |||
| 8 | 8 | Chismosa | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fun Money | 10.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Electric Lettuce | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | E Z Pharis | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Big Hopes | 2.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Uncontrollable | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Smiling Lady | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Yo Yo Mama | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Anmer Hall | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Handy Dandy | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bally’s Charm | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Clutch Hitter | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Crosby Beach | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Smuggler’s Run | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Irish Prophet | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Seven Wonders | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Almanera (IRE) | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lucky Boss | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 98 | Degree of Risk | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.