August 21, 2022 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Corningstone | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hay Stack | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Cookie Crumbs | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hola Gata | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pleasant Passage | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Treasured Gem | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Letter of Gold | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Positive Message (GB) | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Welcometomyworld | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Misintention | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Deep Cover | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Phantom Smoke | 1.60 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Yarrow | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bustin Shout | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dr. Duke | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lady’s Golden Guy | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Brew Pub | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Quickflash | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Excellent Timing | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Unique Unions | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 5 | Linny Kate | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 2 | Viradia | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1A | 4 | That Is Key | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 8 | Red Pepper Grill | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 1 | My Girl Lexi | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Forty Smooth | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 7 | Miss Peppina | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 6 | Nurse Rachett | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | El Segundo | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Icon | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Arthurian | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cajun Commander | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Vincent | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Matty’s Marauder | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Scotto | 10.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Nature Boy | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Devamani (FR) | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Monarchs Glen (GB) | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Attentive | 6.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Healing | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Grand Journey | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tiberius Mercurius | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | The Last Zip | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Battalion | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Reux (GB) | 20.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 1A | 15 | Pioneer Spirit | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Locally Owned | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Crafty Daddy | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Kumar | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Regal Speaker | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Royal Tryst | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Rarify | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Spelterini | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Grand Love | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Good Sam | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Rosie’s Alibi | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Peak Popularity | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mrs. Macomber | 20.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Spun Special | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gormleyesque | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Ajourneytofreedom | 12.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kinenos | 10.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Reigning Spirit | 3.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cibolian | 8.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mud Pie | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Founder | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Balthus (IRE) | 2.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Offlee Naughty | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tide of the Sea | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Claytnthelionheart | 0.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Baba | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Awesome Indra | 6.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ruvies in Time | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Repealing | 1.60 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | To a T | 10.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Chloe Rose | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Exxaltress | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Firing Carol | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Bolton Landing S.) – Bolton Landing S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Love Reigns (IRE) | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Redifined | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sweet Harmony | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | No Kay Never (IRE) | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kerry | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Aztec Nights | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Danse Macabre | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Motown Mischief | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sicilian Grandma | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Grand Oak (IRE) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Vagaries (IRE) | 1.20 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Candlestick Maker | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hope Over Fear | 15.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Belleshazza | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Empress Theodora | 5.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Miscreant | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bayou Wind | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Geometrique | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Ricelle | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ironic Lady | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Lordhearmyprayer | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.