August 13, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Eyes of Gold | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kentucky Reign | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fun and Feisty | 4.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Baby Got Backspin | 3.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Always Smiling | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Malawnia | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Adiva | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Conversational | 8.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 10 | 10 | She Has the Look | 12.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Perfect Rose | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Romance Novel | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Luv Dragon | 3.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Texas Lucky | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Jag Warrior | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | November Rose | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Broadband | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Scarlet Stripe | 3.50 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Calm Inspiration | 2.50 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Intrigue | 8.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Gulfstream Way | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Jelly Nougat | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Defied | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Meister | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tepeu | 2.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hippodrome | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Legionnaire | 3.50 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kiss Principal | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Zoom Erin | 10.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Black Forest | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Willow Bend | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Valiant Praise | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dre Me Less | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Revenue Train | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Zeitlos | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Margoinabubblebath | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Moody | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Key of Life | 3.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Beverly D. S.) – Beverly D. S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Family Way | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Princess Grace | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lily Pond (IRE) | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dalika (GER) | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rougir (FR) | 2.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Gaslight Dancer | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Father Delay | 6.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | American Dollars | 8.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tshiebwe | 8.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | California Twirl | 10.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Frank’s Honor | 15.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Simovic | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Stormin Army | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Texcoco | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Confidence Game | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Augustus Blue | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Accident | 10.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Making Moves | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Lady Tak S.) – Lady Tak S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Music City Star | 20.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bell’s the One | 1.40 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Joyful Cadence | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sconsin | 1.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lovemesomeme | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Engrave | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Order of Merit | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 4 | Cha Cha Loco | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Vinco | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 10 | Pro Oxidant | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 11 | Bourbon On Fire | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Call Me Fast | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Norgay | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 5 | Scratchoff | 5.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 1A | 9 | Appeal Denied | 5.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Vale | 10.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Eleven Central | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Second of July | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Scarlet Fusion | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Gigging | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Digital | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Jennings | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Business Model | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | American Hero | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Fort Larned S.) – Fort Larned S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Mr. Wireless | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Twilight Blue | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Intrepid Heart | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | King Fury | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Treasure Trove | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Artemus Eagle | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Keystone Field | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Arlington Million S.) – Arlington Million S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Santin | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Smooth Like Strait | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Set Piece (GB) | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Field Pass | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Cellist | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cavalry Charge | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sacred Life (FR) | 4.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Admission Office | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Megacity | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.