July 29, 2022 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Gate Runner | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sidekick | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bold Looker | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cheeky Tico | 20.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Golden Alchemist | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Internal Capital | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Southern Flag | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Media Sensation | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Seanan | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Sell Something | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | On Palm Sunday | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Phoebe’s Frosty | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Pivotal Run | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Highgate Road | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Ableton | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Marie’s Tuff Son | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Lookin Grand | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 8 | Toga Dancer | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 14 | Karma’s Warrior | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Loz | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Cash Bail | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Join the Dots | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Frost Me | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Social Dilemma | 20.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Spiked | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Insignia | 1.20 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fingal’s Cave | 2.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Suspended Campaign | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Tis a Pity | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Fontanafredda | 8.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Blame It On Mary | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Summer At the Spa | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Lucky Latkes | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Happy Hill Lil | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Flip My Id | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bustin Bullet | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Laoban’s Legacy | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ouch That Hurt | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Silken Dollar | 10.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Patria | 20.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Barbara’s Bank | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | High School Crush | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Captivating Cara | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Tellaperfecttale | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Sweeping Giant | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gut Feeling | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Streaming Tap | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fazaro | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Druid | 50.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sebaray | 10.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blueberry | 4.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Inspired Mischief | 12.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mad Magic | 8.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Myplayalinda | 12.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Union of Thoughts | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Good Soldier | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Empire Ridge | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Growth Mindset | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Strike Price | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Ten Cent Town | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Camm’ Duke | 15.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dee’s Speedstre | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Quick Chaos | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | With Know Name | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Bobby the Tank | 3.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Acoustic Ave | 2.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Liotta | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Social Sidekick | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Shortsinthewinter | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Curlin S.) – Curlin S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Creative Minister | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Make It Big | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Golden Glider | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | A. P.’s Secret | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Artorius | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gilded Age | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Be Better | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Western River | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Wolfe County | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Lyrical Poet | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fauci | 4.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dancing Buck | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Anaconda | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Much Better | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Runningwscissors | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Noble Emotion | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Kobe Tough | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Spirit Animal | 50.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Comedy Town | 20.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Xy Speed | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Montauk Daddy | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Mexican Wonder Boy | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Fitzpatrick | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Higher Standard | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Chuck Willis (IRE) | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Life Changer | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | On the Hill | 4.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Baltasar | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Dark Timber | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Quick to Blame | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1A | 10 | Nicholas James | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Charger | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Vikram | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Street Culture | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 5 | Motion to Strike | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Stella Mars | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Built Different | 4.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Radiant Gem | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Voice of Spring | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | French Franc (FR) | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rosemary Potatoes | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Huntress Moon | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Runaway Rockette | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lady of Thoroton | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | More Mango | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | In My Wake | 6.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Shaolin | 12.00 | 11.9 | 23-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Poncho Song | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Mia At Midnight | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Maybe Later | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Masabeeh | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.