July 27, 2022 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Welshman | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ancient Times | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bee Major | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Grey Giant | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Proven Innocent | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Take Profit | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Freddy Flintshire | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | State of Affair | 5.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Spring Heeled Jim (IRE) | 8.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Knot Anymore | 1.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Big Tony’s Girl | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Daily Briefing | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bastet | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bells On Her Toes | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | London Gold | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Weyhill Farm Rd. | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Disarmed | 1.60 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Twenty Six Black | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Disco Demolition | 10.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Noble Huntsman | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | General Banker | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Vince the Prince | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Shortsinthewinter | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Honorable Miss H.) – Honorable Miss H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Bella Sofia | 0.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Frank’s Rockette | 2.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kimari | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Amadevil | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Jarreau | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mooney Love (IRE) | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Curbstone | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dante’s Fire | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Neotropic | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Forwardly | 2.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hometown | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Danseur d’Oro | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Recognize | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Gambling Girl | 3.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Disruption | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Silver Skillet | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Banterra | 5.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Miracle | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Berning Honor | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Alice Kramden | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Luna Loca | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1A | 13 | Book and Cancel | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Little Linzee | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | August Bloom | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Fish Mooney | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mirth ‘n Merriment | 2.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hatari | 1.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Vintage Girl | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Spooky Road | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Miss Invincible | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | O’Gotten Girl | 1.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Anotherworldinside | 8.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Saratoga Commando | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Unlock | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Preposterous | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Handle the Truth | 30.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Keen Dancer | 30.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lady Yellen | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Majestic Spirit | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | High Opinion | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Messidor (IRE) | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Amalfi Princess | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Evvie Jets | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Phantom Vision | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tass | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | W W Fitzy | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Wholebodemeister | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Misty Veil | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Dover Dreams | 12.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Glitter Up | 10.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Adam’s Angel | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Course Runner | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Aquila Moon | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Backyard Money | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mattapoisett | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Liquidity Provider | 4.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ms. Solveig | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | She’s Awesome | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Alessia | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.