July 21, 2022 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Drink the Wind | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Citizen Mack | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Be There | 30.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Frat Pack | 2.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Up to the Mark | 1.20 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Insomniac | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Handicap) – Starter Handicap
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Palace Coup | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Grumps Little Tots | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Blake B. | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Perceived | 2.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | No Burn | 3.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kumar | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | I Am the Law | 10.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cash in a Flash | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Al’s Prince | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Resilient Courage | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hatch | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Hometown | 0.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Inspiration Point | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Icarus | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | St. Joe Louis (GB) | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Clear the Deck | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Run Poppy | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kbcya Later | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Forbidden Secret | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | V Mart | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fourfaith | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tyver | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Smart Prize | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Greatest Love | 1.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Domineer | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Aidanike | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Guns Blazing | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bay Jewel | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Song of Honor | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Big Al’s Gal | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | My Girl Lexi | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Cara’s Prince | 15.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Three Zero | 6.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Jeremy’s Jet | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | A Western Yarn | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Barzini | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | In Detail | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Noble Connection | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Ee Yah | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Big Package | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Artemus Citylimits | 3.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Principled Stand (GB) | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Smooth B | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | It’s a Gamble | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Nothing Better | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Maxwell Esquire | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | U Guys Are No Fun | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Captainsdaughter | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Reigning Chick | 6.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Caragate | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Stimulus Check | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mia Bea Star | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Elegant Laoban | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Rick Violette S.) – Rick Violette S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Dakota Gold | 0.80 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Coinage | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Practice Squad | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sundaeswithsandy | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Stop the Spread | 50.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Compromiser | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Timbuktu | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Seaver | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Shackled by Lust | 12.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Factor That | 8.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | American Rockette | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tell Me When | 10.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sugar Mamas Cakery | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Anotherdaygoneby | 30.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Georgees Spirit | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Determined Jester | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Binsky | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Strut | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Margaret Burbidge | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.