July 17, 2022 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Miracle Mike | 1.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Light Man | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Barry the Builder | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Burn Jakey Burn | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Conman | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Pete N Billy | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sorpreso | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Curly Larry and Mo | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | N Y Riesling | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Mommasgottarun | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Leviosa | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Waters of Merom | 2.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Trinity Titoli | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gris Tormenta | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Amore Fire | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Crosstalk | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 9 | 9 | To the Tune | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Big Bean Christine | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Roz | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Escapewithfriends | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Shane’s Risk | 4.50 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Secret Hideout | 15.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 |
| 6 | 6 | My Daddy’s Trainer | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Carlann | 8.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Halofied | 10.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Crafty Daddy | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | War Stopper | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Locally Owned | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Zoomer | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Two Thirty Five | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Indimaaj | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Truculent | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Sheriff Bianco | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Yarrow | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Veterans Beach | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Be the Boss | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Athenry | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Disco Deano | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Neuro | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Two Down | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Saratoga Promise | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 10 | Great Workout | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 11 | Storm Shooter | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | O’Trouble | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Road to Success | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Brunate | 4.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Victory Built | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Truebelieve | 30.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Forestwood Lane | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Majestic Tiger | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Jumpster | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Scorpion Dynasty | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Quintarelli | 50.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Revenio | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Bella Principessa | 10.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Russiarussiarussia | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | I’m Fine | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lady Thornhill | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Masterof the Tunes | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Just Ok Is Not Ok | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fist Full of Dice | 15.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | New Ginya | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Starship Belmont | 30.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Vallelujah | 50.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Gallina | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Caragate | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Classic Lynne | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Quick Call S. Presented By The Thoroughbred Retirement Foundation) – Quick Call S. Presented By The Thoroughbred Retirement Foundation
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Big Invasion | 1.20 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Nobals | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Surprise Boss | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sky and Sand | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Run Curtis Run | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Asymmetric (IRE) | 3.50 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | One Timer | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Hagler | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Senbei | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Dance Code | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Sound Money | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Supremacy | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fortin Hill | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Night Time | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Three Two Zone | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | American Power | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gun It | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Our Jessica | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dats a Superstar | 15.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | I’ll Go All In | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Dance for Bourbon | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Tapple Cider | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Inkblot | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Oak Loves a Fight | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jannie Mae | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Miss Malala | 50.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Skyward Princess | 3.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Mucho Mama Mia | 12.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lola Lola | 10.00 | 12.6 | 24-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Quiet Type | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Frosty Invasion | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Dulce Gigante | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Kay Tee Gal | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.