July 14, 2022 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Parsimony | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Giocare | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Kershaw | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dark Storm | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Smooth Operation | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bear Alley | 2.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Warrior in Chief | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Auburn Hills | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Royal Tryst | 6.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Chocolate Gelato | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Spelterini | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Thirty Thou Kelvin | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Half a Chance | 1.80 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Will Be Famous | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Two Minute Drill | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Grand Journey | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Takafumi (BRZ) | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Street Copper | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Attentive | 4.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | High Tide | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tiberius Mercurius | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ballagh Rocks | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 11 | Pioneer Spirit | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Hammerin Aamer | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 12 | Mount Travers | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | No Burn | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Be Here | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Vintage Year | 8.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Snow’s Island | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Afjan | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Good Soldier | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tiz a Giant | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Remote | 2.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Grand Cay | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Timo | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Cheeky Tico | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | The Institute | 10.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tommy Gun | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Majority Partner | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Catching Cupid | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cold Walker | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Hereby | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sensibleconclusion | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Clingman | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Waralo | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Josie’s Thunder | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Fast N Fearious | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | U. S. Steel | 10.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Propensity | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | King Moonracer | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Stanhope | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Just Say When | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Winter Son | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Me ‘n Sap | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Starrystarryknight | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cold as Hell | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dark Timber | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Life Changer | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Vikram | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Nicholas James | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Wilton S.) – Wilton S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Tarabi | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Goddess of Fire | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Favor | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Angitude | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gina Romantica | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | A Mo Reay | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | St Maarten Girl | 30.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Let’s Be Clear | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Sweet Solare | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Bravo Kitten | 8.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Myriskyaffair | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Big Tentations | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lady Puchi | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Canisy | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Love to Run | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Linda’s Gift | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Candy Light | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Santa Giulia (FR) | 8.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Snow Loves a Fight | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Missy Greer | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Customer List (FR) | 6.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Texian | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Wonka | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Queen Judith | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Schuylerville S.) – Schuylerville S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Just Cindy | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Me and My Shadow | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Adora | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Summer Promise | 3.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Janis Joplin | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Vedareo | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Musicmansandy | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sweet Harmony | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Motown Mischief | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Fast Corey | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Abuse of Power | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rigby | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Highway Queen | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Queens Dancer | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Magniloquent | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Half Birthday | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Dame Time | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Train to Artemus | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tweaqued | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Proper Grammar | 50.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Mommasgottarun | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.