July 4, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Santos Dumont | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Injunction | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Keystone Field | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Candy Tycoon | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Double Crown | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Civil War | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Just Like Magic | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Sheza Shining Star | 6.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Moon Magic Chrissy | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | She’s Jersey Tuff | 30.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Best Seller | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fun and Feisty | 10.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Bea Flattered | 6.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Friendlypersuasion | 10.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | B G Warrior | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Boltoro | 4.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Magical Lute | 10.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | High Fashion Lady | 8.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Divine Grace | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Nepotism | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mount Athos | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Perfect Cut | 12.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mr Sippi | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Spend Benjamins | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cold as Hell | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mumayaz | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Flags Up | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Naughty Gal | 8.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Chiquita Mosca | 8.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Catherine Blaze | 30.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Empress Isabel | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Stunningly | 2.50 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Redhairedcolleen | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Aunt Mischief | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Brisbane Road | 8.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Forever Dixie | 4.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Run and Gun | 12.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Audaciousness | 10.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Callie’s Passion | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Anacaro | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Doubly Blessed | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Shortlist | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Skyro | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Enid | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Roderick | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gagetown | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Eron Do Jaguarete (BRZ) | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Big Lake | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Koufax | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Red Label | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Bashford Manor S.) – Bashford Manor S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Simply Super | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mr. Gordy | 12.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gulfport | 0.80 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Andthewinneris | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Owen’s Leap | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Stayhonor Goodside | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Debutante S.) – Debutante S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Les Bon Temps | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sabra Tuff | 8.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Wonder Wheel | 3.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Empire of My Own | 1.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Crackalacking | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Eyes of Gold | 20.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Frango Electrico | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Hanshin S. Presented By Jra) – Hanshin S. Presented By Jra
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Cody’s Wish | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Plainsman | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Three Technique | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mish | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Weyburn | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Awesome Gerry | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Runnin’ Ray | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Emirates Road | 10.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gilded Age | 5.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | War Campaign | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Brigadier General | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Warrior Johny | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Britain’s Kitten | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | We All See It | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Glacial | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Skate to Heaven | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Just Call Ray | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Keepcalmcarryon | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Hippodrome | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.