July 1, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Out Dancing | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Blue Oyster | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Jaccaci | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | McMansion | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Start Class | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shaolin | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Wilmore | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Mo’s Mojo | 10.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Samurai Prince | 2.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | David’s Gem | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bootsie’s Galaxy | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Long Term Thinking | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Trappe Valley | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Abuelo Nuno | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | With Verve | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Fabulous Fanny | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Parish Belle | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Twentytwenty Hoax | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mahomebred | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tricked Out | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hope and Dreams | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Spare a Dime | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sacred Kitten | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Sparkling Rose | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Promise of Hope | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | American Maestra | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Mystical Fire | 12.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lil Carrie D | 30.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Frigid Lady | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Song of Storms | 30.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Doughty | 10.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Audrey’s Willow | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Grove | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Maci’s Gemstone | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Amongst Friends | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Swift Tap | 5.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cryo | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Silk Trade | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lend It Tewmey | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mamba Twenty Four | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Money Mike | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Kunshan Bridge | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Misbehaved | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Polsar | 10.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Jonas’ Dream | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | One More Baby | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Conspiracy Fact | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Classic Mark | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Blow Torch | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Thought | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rikio | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Strings | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Two Birds | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Atomic Tone | 20.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Bourbon On Fire | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Scattershack | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Divine Grace | 12.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Holiday Decision | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Malawnia | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Personal Pursuit | 3.50 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Collected Glory | 15.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Diamond District | 12.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sugar Mamas Cakery | 4.50 | 9.8 | 18-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Marsanne | 8.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Roja Ligera | 8.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Somebody’s Problem | 10.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Baby Got Backspin | 8.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Sunny Isle Beach | 15.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Downtown Abby | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Street Jam | 10.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Khuluq | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Thanozapper | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hot and Sultry | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Golden Sights | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Flashy Charge | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Skratch Kat | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Sequist | 15.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mama Rina | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Colorful Mischief | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Stanley Market | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Zing | 20.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Runaway Wife | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Big Java | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Delightfulsymphony | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Olga Isabel | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Treasure of War | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Scarlet Fusion | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Laughing Boy | 5.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Royal Act | 30.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Decision Maker | 8.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Backsideofthemoon | 8.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Soy Tapatio | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Leblon | 20.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ethical Judgement | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Super Constitution | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Beachwalker | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Artemus Eagle | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Rising Empire | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Roderick | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Predominate | 12.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bright Prospecter | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sticky Issue | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Shipman | 12.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Afjan | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tepeu | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Boone’s Path | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kentucky Mist | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Kansas Comet | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.