June 29, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Southern Sense | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mizzen Man | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Horse Daddy | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | On Spot | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Inkosi | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Greenridge Thunder | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Flagstone | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Gonna Cut It | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | My Baton Rouge | 15.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Liturgia | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Holy Foley | 3.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | She’ll Never Know | 3.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lakeside Music | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Janis Joplin | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Jump Into the Fire | 1.20 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Absolute Love | 1.40 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Candy’s Dream | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ancient Brown | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Jazzy Lady | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Carry On | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Shoplifter | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cotton Candy Annie | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sirius Light | 3.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Jordan | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lady Radler | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Boston to Bozeman | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ladan | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Exulting | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Eagle Pass | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Home Run Trick | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Indian Gulch | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | All West | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Leader of Men | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Family Man | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Blueridge Mountain | 6.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Sea Level | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Too Pretty | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Honey Run | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fabricate | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | H. T. Xena | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Speightful Charge | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pistol | 6.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hot Anna | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Travel Column | 1.20 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Thundering Creed | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tipsy Gal | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Princess of Cairo | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | New Roo | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lovemesomeme | 1.40 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Temper Time | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Mrs. Nushi | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dorota | 10.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Oaxaca | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Lunch Lady | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Rufa Red Knot | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lunar Ice | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cool Carol | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Open Says Me | 12.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Contessina | 6.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.