June 26, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Soaring Bird | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bull Hollow | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Firery Tale | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Randello | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Honorary Degree | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Colonel Klink | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mataro | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Jeremy’s Jet | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Divemaster | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Musical Maestro | 2.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Accident | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rungius | 3.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Stuck N Snow | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Revere Note | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | John Grey | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Book of Kells | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Prove Right | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Uptown Social | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Loudmouthsoup | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Run Poppy | 3.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cinch Up | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Trepat | 10.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Moriarty | 20.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Smart Prize | 10.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 10 | Enough Already | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Unified Dreams | 20.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 5 | Strong Light | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Beyblader | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1A | 8 | Faith Runner | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Perfect Flight | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Old Hickory | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mistical Curlin | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | Mucho Mojo | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Workinfromhome | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Shadow Matter | 10.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Nakatomi | 1.60 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hooperdrivesthboat | 15.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Higher Standard | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Swiftsure | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Wild Popit | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Speitful Sam | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Kingmeister | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Highestdistinction | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Policy Option | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Critical Threat | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Second of July | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Blue Jays | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pico d’Oro | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Endless Sunset | 5.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Clear the Deck | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Cortese | 4.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mardukas | 15.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Midnight Dreaming | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Doc Ballard | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Let Him Do | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Inspeightoftrainer | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cravens | 4.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Missin Curfew | 6.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ghent | 10.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Ari Oakley | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hazy Command | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Social Dilemma | 8.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Portilla | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mercy Warren | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Minute Waltz | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lavendar Lane | 20.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Quick Munny | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Beautiful Farewell | 10.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Dance It | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Saint Eros Girl | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Leave It Be | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dorothea | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Timetable | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hot Rumor | 3.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Just Get It | 10.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Course Runner | 5.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stage Queen | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.