June 25, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Sweet Beauty | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Wildcat Dream | 10.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sure Wasn’t Me | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sconce | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Layla’s Song | 15.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Slam Diego | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mambo Kitten | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dilmunia | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Je Suis Rapide | 4.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Key of Life | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Unified Decision | 12.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Summer Promise | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Watch This Munny | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Danse Macabre | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | My Butterfly | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Topsy | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Justin’s Quest | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sonic City | 1.60 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Spheroid | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | O Cigano | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Altered | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Market Development | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Storm Advisory | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | My Man Flintstone | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Skyscanner | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Muy Caro | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Yes Sir Robert | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mason A. P. | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Areyoutalkingtome | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Twobirdsonestone | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Charge the Line | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Fulsome | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Chess Chief | 4.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Twilight Blue | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sprawl | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mailman Money | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Background | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Heart Rhythm | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Queengol | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Alberta Sun | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bombdiggity | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Makescentstous | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Love of My Heart | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sylvia Q | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Short Summer Dress | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Touch of Class | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Sunday Grace | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Lucky Devil | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Engrave | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Inexorable | 12.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Badgeball | 4.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Veritable | 5.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sunday Breeze | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lord Captain | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Call Me Fast | 5.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mr. Mariah | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Get Her Number | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gun It | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | County Final | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Perfect Speighty | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Atoka | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Haunt | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Lykan | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Surveillance | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Rustler | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Chicago S.) – Chicago S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Bell’s the One | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Four Graces | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lady Rocket | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pennybaker | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bayerness | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sconsin | 2.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kalypso | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Favorite Outlaw | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Right Tone | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Schmoozin | 10.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Ignitis | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Olliemeister | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Respect the Code | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Top of the Charts | 2.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Eyes of Glory | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lofty Adjudicator | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Angkor | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Let My People Go | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.