June 23, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Latte Dolce | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Supertaleofhoudini | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Super Wonder Girl | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mizbehaving Sis | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Eclipsed | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | T. K.’s Joker | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Ego | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | River Echo (GB) | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bear Alley | 1.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rye Humor | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Unidentified Man | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Jurisdiction | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Majors Vindication | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Thatshowsherolls | 12.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Specializin | 2.50 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dice Arm | 3.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Ayy Ladies | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Go On Girl | 3.50 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 1A | 8 | Corvina | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 5 | Happy Clouds | 8.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Miss Addie Lynn | 6.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 8 | 9 | Tell Me When | 8.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 6 | Captain Fantastic | 10.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Stayin’ Out Late | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 8 | Icon | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 7 | Fed Money | 4.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Kiss Principal | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Mo Betta | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Formal Order | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 4 | Barstow | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Fight Fiercely | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nak Nak Bolt | 12.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sivako | 6.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tulsan | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Eakly | 15.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Two Phil’s | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sailor’s Chance | 10.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Bluff City | 15.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Dakota Run | 15.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | How Did He Do That | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Arman | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Jeremy’s Jet | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Lady Traveler | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Smarmy | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Duplicitous | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Code for Success | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Rookery | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Stellar Grace | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Wicked Wonder | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Intrepid Heart | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Masqueparade | 1.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Whiskey Double | 12.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Spa City | 10.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | My Sixth Sense | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Silver Dust | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | You’re to Blame | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fenwick Station | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | She’s Keen | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Insignia | 1.60 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Amenset | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Five Prizes | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fine Cotton | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cinq Souers | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | South Georgia | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Music Street | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Forever After All | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 1 | High Resolution | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.