June 19, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Out Work’n | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Popster | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Master Lea | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Go Virtual | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Amazing Rocket | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Bruce On the Loose | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Make My Own Luck | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Project Thunder | 8.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Jackys Back | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Private Connie | 12.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | Julia’s Chardonnay | 10.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Black Forest | 4.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mo Bonita | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Chiquita Mosca | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Shackled by Lust | 6.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bolts N Rainbows | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 1A | 13 | Evening Merlot | 10.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Vivid Exposure | 12.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Numero Seis | 10.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Star Pose | 15.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Dream State | 20.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Danse Macabre | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Kiss Me On Oconee | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | B Dawk | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Wayakin | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Greener Pastures | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tango Charlie | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Civil War | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Quick to Blame | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Minnesota Ready | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Soros | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Summonyourcourage | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hill of Tara | 15.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Mo Strike | 3.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Disarm | 3.50 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Anglophile | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Our Dream Rye’d | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Western Ghent | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mo Moves | 4.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Eli’s Promise | 12.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Let Him Do | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Eakly | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Best Bet | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Edge of Glory | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Blunder | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 12 | Acehigh Royal | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Scattershack | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fast Felix | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | One America | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mr Boldacious | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Unleash the Power | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1A | 11 | Prince of Glory | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Grantastic | 15.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Silvestre | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Flags Up | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gulfstream Way | 2.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Swift Tap | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dark Timber | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Spend Benjamins | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Red Knobs | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Keen Heir | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bernie Lomax | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Merci Road | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cami Cat | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Candy Kick | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Traverse | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gin N Sin | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lady Terra | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Missed Opportunity | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | McMansion | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Yellow Creek Road | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Why She Dew Dat | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Exaggerated Humor | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Southern Passage | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Nepotism | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Notary | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Toma Todo | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cousin Larry | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Naval Aviator | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Moon Dog | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Carmichael | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Doctor Nash | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Just Call Ray | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Take a Stand | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Eivissa | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sunny River | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lady Commander | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Fever Dreaming | 30.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Catch Magic | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Neck On the Nile | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Jag Warrior | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Dontgetabovuraisin | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cocoa Colada | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Scent of Royalty | 12.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Happy Jack | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Osbourne | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Open Road | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Prayforpeace | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Peaceful Waters | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tejano Twist | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Blue Kentucky | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Money Supply | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | My Crazy Neighbor | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Raymond | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Mean Jakey | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Amicable | 50.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Congressman | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Rum ‘n Tonic | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Improbable Journey | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Woodline | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cloud Without Rein | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Stirdatpot | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Embrace | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Golden Luna | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | My Grass Is Blue | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bar On the Beach | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Appeal Denied | 10.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Warrior Road | 12.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.