June 18, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Summer Storm | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Parkin in the Rear | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Breonna | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Queen Louise | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | L. A. Star | 8.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Marcie’s Candy | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Smokin Hot Bobbie | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Jarreau | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Arabian Prince | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bakwena | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Western River | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Always Above | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Full Charge | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | General Strike | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Master of Arms | 1.80 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Uncle Berley | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Division Street | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Smarty John | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Uncle Nick | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Shakedown Street | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Mizzen Man | 8.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Knightly Mischief | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Offutt Cole | 10.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | On Spot | 12.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | East of India | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Right of Rush | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | T Money | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dialed a Dame | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Monomoy Girl Overnight S.) – Monomoy Girl Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Miss Yearwood | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tap Dancing Lady | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Society | 1.40 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Imogene Malvina | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Glacken’s Cause | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Beverly Park | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Eagle Pass | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Thirsty Betrayal | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Win With Pride | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Crime Spree | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Seau | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | All West | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Criminal Defense | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Can Imagine | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Enid | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fan Club | 10.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ebben | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Double Crown | 8.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Absam | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Briefcase Bully | 3.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kittansett | 4.50 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Warrior Johny | 0.80 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Conspiracy Fact | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sailor’s Return | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Curlin’s Malibu | 15.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Active Duty | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Roaring Gap | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bold Medication | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Paid Twice | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Lord Dragon | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Frosted Grace | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Zanesville | 10.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Palace Coup | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Peekacho | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chantry Flats | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tiz Our Turn | 12.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Majestic West | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | To Kalon | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Famed | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Tarabi | 1.60 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ontheonesandtwos | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cancel This | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | High Speed | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mystique Saboteur | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Taleofreadychianti | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Rain Check | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ring Me Darling | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Jumakan Bourbon | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Landed Gentry | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Classic Coyne | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1A | 8 | Divine Hope | 20.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 9 | Royal Flower | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Repealing | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 10 | 11 | Lady Pele | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 10 | Broadway Blaze | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Park Angel | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Romance Novel | 10.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
| 1 | 3 | Broadband | 20.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Explicate | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.