June 17, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Copper Charm | 8.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Delta Gamma Cats | 1.40 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Frills | 1.20 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dulcimer Dame | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Invaluable | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Sis Boom Bob | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Monocacy | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Rufa Red Knot | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Arneis | 10.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Shrimpie | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Margarita Time | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mambo Kitten | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Missionary Work | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Crimson Rose | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Legerity | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Epicurean | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Believing | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Shaniah | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Floris | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Towhead | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | She’s Jersey Tuff | 30.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Spirit and Fire | 2.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dot Marie | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | East Shore | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Just an Angel | 3.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lady Squared | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Kiss Me On Oconee | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Freedom for All | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Hozier | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Keystone Field | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Blanket of Roses | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Celerity | 30.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | Koolhaus | 1.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Roderick | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Kittansett | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Runway Magic | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Full Impact | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Space Odessey | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Atta Boy Anthony | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Catipari | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ridgepointe | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Zoffa | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | O Cigano | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | American Apple | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Catherine Blaze | 12.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Just Cindy | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Corningstone | 5.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Champagne Calling | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Just Like Magic | 3.50 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | C C Cruise Control | 8.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Song of Storms | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Receive a Gift | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Araya | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Wings of an Angel | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Two Sixtyone | 10.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Angitude | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Pathetique | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | My Sweet Kat | 20.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Giverny | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Comedy Act | 3.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | My My Munny | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Train to Artemus | 6.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Hippodrome | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | American Mayhem | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Paid Twice | 10.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | G Flat | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Silver Blur | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Heir to Greatness | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | What’s Up Doc | 4.50 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Arch Ego | 10.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sailor’s Return | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Active Duty | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Predominate | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.