June 15, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Go Virtual | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Make My Own Luck | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Popster | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Private Connie | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bruce On the Loose | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Amazing Rocket | 3.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Youvesaiditall | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ego | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Jingle | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Money for Mischief | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pepper Pike | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | To Kalon | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Double Overtime | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Thatshowsherolls | 5.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dream State | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Go On Girl | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Three Sport Coats | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Happy Clouds | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Miss Addie Lynn | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Black Forest | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Shackled by Lust | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Chiquita Mosca | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mo Bonita | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bolts N Rainbows | 5.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Numero Seis | 6.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Corvina | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Star Pose | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Merci Road | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gin N Sin | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Why She Dew Dat | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | McMansion | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lady Terra | 2.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Missed Opportunity | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Exaggerated Humor | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Phantom Vision | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Navratilova | 1.40 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Saranya | 1.60 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Rakassah (IRE) | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | New Roo | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Crystal Glacier | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Yes to Mischief | 8.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | On the Rise | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Stellar Grace | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Quick Munny | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bizzy Echo | 3.50 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Shell Shock | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | I Cross My Heart | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 8 | Tango Charlie | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Greener Pastures | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 6 | B Dawk | 1.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 5 | Hemp Heaven | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 2 | Majestic West | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 1A | 3 | Soros | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 7 | Civil War | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 3 | 4 | Quick to Blame | 8.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
| 8 | 9 | Just Call Ray | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.