June 11, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Try SFTB Plus for Free
$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.
Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Commander Compton | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Marvelousmoondance | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Arrow Strike | 5.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Calipari | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dual Threat | 1.60 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bright Spark | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Irish Hokie | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | In Sky We Trust | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Caramelito | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Established | 2.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Estilo Varonil | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | J. E.’s Handmedown | 3.50 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Montgomery Park | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Beauty Day | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Field Daisey | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | C V Thunder | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Diamond Lydiamarie | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Aidanike | 1.80 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Her Giant | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Fannie and Freddie | 8.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sequist | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 15 | 16 | Stanley Market | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Querobin Dourada | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 14 | 15 | Patna | 2.50 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Eminent Victor | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Royal Engagement | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Street Tapper | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 14 | Schlofmitz | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Love to Run | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Al Qahira | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Red Hot Mama | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Whenthedawnbreaks | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Blissful | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Fancy Martini | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Glenall (IRE) | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Speed Boat | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Can Man Do | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Captain Fantastic | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Drop Anchor | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tom’s Last General | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bronze Beast | 20.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Terawatt | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Ingersoll | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Sunny Isle Beach | 10.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Take Charge Lorin | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Salute the Flag | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Richebourg | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Nosilverspoonshere | 1.80 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jazzy Lady | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Per Diem | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Mumayaz | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ferocity | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Onyourmarkgetsetgo | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Honorable Vow | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Scotch No Rocks | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Greenridge Thunder | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Our Team | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ox Doc | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Twentytwenty Hoax | 10.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Little Blaze | 4.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | American Pyramid | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Super Christie | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dial Toni | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Run Up the Score | 5.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mahomebred | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pistolpackinpolly | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bal a Bae Bee | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Lamasco | 20.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Surcharge | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | More Than Vows | 3.50 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Exaggerated Humor | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Razor Glass | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Connie K | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kaely’s Sister | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Liberty M D | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Lady Anna | 30.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gerri B | 4.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Jungle Juice (IRE) | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Salt Plage | 8.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Malloy | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Mighty Beau Overnight S.) – Mighty Beau Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Just Might | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Oceanic | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Johnny Unleashed | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Charcoal | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Baytown Bear | 30.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Major Wager | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Carotari | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Creative Credit | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Smokin’ Jay | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Overtaxed | 12.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Jura | 10.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Mr Sippi | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Miniconjou | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ready to Answer | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Stayed in for Half | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lock Up | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lend It Tewmey | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Roughin the City | 50.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Seize the Treasure | 12.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.