June 5, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Try SFTB Plus for Free
$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.
Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Jump Into the Fire | 0.60 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Absolute Love | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sense You Left | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Carry On | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Malibu Marlee | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | La Tourista | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Thunderheart | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Haney Boys | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Oncoming Train | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cole Spur | 2.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kissalot | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Graywing | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Sky and Sand | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | American Starlet | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Candy Landing | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Run Curtis Run | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Nobals | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | B D Valeski | 4.50 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Detroit City | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Nakatomi | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Isthmian | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Brown Delivers | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Workinfromhome | 8.00 | 1.9 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Fotheringay | 20.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Winter’s Ghost | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Go Virtual | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Southern Sense | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Officer Nick | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mr Ghost | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Kevalar | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Hanalei’s Houdini | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Colonel Bowman | 6.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Colonelsdarktemper | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Double Crown | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Eskenforit | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Flat Lucky | 4.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Long Term Thinking | 6.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Impressed | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Tepeu | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mount Rundle | 8.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bourbon On Fire | 15.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blue Devil | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Blue Bonzai | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Old Hickory | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Simply Jack | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Pipe Rules | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | The Clown | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | El Gemar | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Polyglot | 3.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Shipman | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Grantastic | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Rio King | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Speed Bias | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Lolas Beau | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Kentucky Mist | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Caddo River | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mr. Wireless | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Heart Rhythm | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Endorsed | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | South Bend | 2.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Three Technique | 3.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sounion | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Laughing Boy | 12.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Injunction | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Life Is Hard | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rising Empire | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Eastside Cool | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Backsideofthemoon | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Scarlet Fusion | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Decision Maker | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Claytnthelionheart | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Risk Taking | 5.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Soy Tapatio | 4.50 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Beaver Hat | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Super Constitution | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Artemus Eagle | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Spa City | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Old Forester Mint Julep S.) – Old Forester Mint Julep S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Hendy Woods | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dalika (GER) | 4.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Keeper of Time (IRE) | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Market Rumor | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Take Charge Ro | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gam’s Mission | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lake Lucerne | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Petricor (GB) | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ambassador Luna | 20.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Waliyak (FR) | 8.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Master Game | 20.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Master of Arms | 12.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bourbon Heist | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Misbehaved | 12.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Grand Aspen | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cyclone | 10.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Concerted | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Elite Power | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Frontal Assault | 50.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Kingmaker | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Legionnaire | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | General Strike | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | York Tavern | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Bendettijoe | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Papa Rocket | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Boone’s Path | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.