June 4, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Crafty Daddy | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Chocolate Bar | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Big Lake | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Winter Pool | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Truculent | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Proverb | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Wild for Wycliff | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hope and Dignity | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sag Harbor | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | King’s Mischief | 4.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Suggested | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mahomey | 4.50 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Charter Oak | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sir Giannis | 12.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Majestic West | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Classic Coyne | 12.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Overcooked | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Lil Town Sis | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Gunning | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Summer Mate | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Please Be Kind | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Madelyn’s Magic | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Smugness | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Strikingly | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jag Warrior | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Colorful Mischief | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sacred Kitten | 4.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Misread | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Bedtime for Buffy | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Super Christie | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Powder River | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Family Time | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lady Frosted | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Semble Juste (IRE) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Bees and Honey | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Microcap | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Miss Tulsa | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Longpants Required | 5.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Good Penny | 8.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Regret S.) – Regret S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Beside Herself | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Walkathon | 4.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | McKulick (GB) | 1.40 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kneesnhips | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lola Flo | 30.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Candy Raid | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Sacred Samurai | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Strava | 4.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | My Buddy B | 15.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Stellar Tap | 15.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Emirates Road | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Awesome Aaron | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Volcanic | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Durante | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | We All See It | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Rider’s Special | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Glacial | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mendenhall | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Ignitis | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Unpredictable Bay | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 15 | McLaren Vale | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Shawnee S.) – Shawnee S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Pauline’s Pearl | 0.60 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ava’s Grace | 3.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Army Wife | 4.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Temper Time | 20.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | She’s All Wolfe | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Crazy Beautiful | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Arlington S.) – Arlington S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Gray’s Fable | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Field Pass | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Get Smokin | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Floriform | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Like the King | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Admission Office | 3.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Aristides S.) – Aristides S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Top Gunner | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Jalen Journey | 10.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Miles Ahead | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bob’s Edge | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Necker Island | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bango | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Pyron | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Long Range Toddy | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Blame S.) – Blame S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Americanrevolution | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Santos Dumont | 20.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Proxy | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Scalding | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Super Stock | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dynamic One | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Militarist | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Title Ready | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Audubon S.) – Audubon S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Summer Anthem | 8.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Grand Sonata | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tallahatchiebridge | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Speaking Scout | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | James Jones | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Red Run | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Play Action Pass | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Smokin’ T | 4.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Major General | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kitodan | 30.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Spin Wheel | 10.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.