June 3, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Sun Dress | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | L. A. Star | 4.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Smokin Hot Bobbie | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Princess Renee | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Marcie’s Candy | 1.60 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Her Giant | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bow Maker | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Teewinot Pass | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ferryboat | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Loving Lucky | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Formal Order | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Genomic | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Lemonadeatthelatch | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Kivalina | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Hedy Lamarr | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Pharoah’s Song | 1.40 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tiffany’s Mo | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Spartina | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Reverb | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Loftyshipslowsails | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Shady Road | 10.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Saint Sista | 30.00 | 11.9 | 23-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Economic Hangover | 12.00 | 12.4 | 23-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Henrietta Topham | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 15 | Jane Mast | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Scent of Royalty | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 16 | Easy to Love | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 11 | West Love | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 12 | Mindful | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Vicki Rose | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Divine Grace | 8.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Southlawn | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sheza Shining Star | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Wonder Wheel | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | She’s Jersey Tuff | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Black Forest | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | American Apple | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Classy Miss | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Irresistible Lady | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Chrome Savage | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Casey | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Jalebi Baby | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Daniella’s Cause | 6.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Verdandi | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Maggie’s Will | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | My Daddy’s Trainer | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bel Aria | 12.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mambo Kitten | 10.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Kitchen Table | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Purrfect Mistress | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Hidden Stash | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Hombre | 6.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Second of July | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Offlee Naughty | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Mutakatif (IRE) | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Mud Pie | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Attorney Tim | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Grey Streak | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Jammers Justice | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 12 | Claytnthelionheart | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Spa City | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 8 | Kentucky Pharoah | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2B | 13 | Roderick | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Surfer Dude | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Conagher | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gunite | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Magnolia Midnight | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Call Me Midnight | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tejano Twist | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Cocktail Moments | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Falconet | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Heartyconstitution | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Napa Candy | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Feeling Happy | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Honey Run | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Amani’s Image | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Olivia Darling | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Early Glow | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Street Jam | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Princess Elin | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mercy Warren | 12.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Legerity | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Khuluq | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Polsar | 10.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Defied | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mucho Mojo | 3.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gut Feeling | 2.50 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Group Eighteen | 8.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sergeant Reckless | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ninja Warrior | 8.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Versatile | 8.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Close Knit | 10.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Declare the Moon | 15.00 | 11.2 | 21-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bronze Halo | 12.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Overslept | 20.00 | 13.8 | 26-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Flying Fred | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Tiwanaku | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Truly Mischief | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Blue Bonzai | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Big Hello | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.