May 29, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Spurs Up | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Kbcya Later | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Doc Ballard | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ramos | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Book of Kells | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Overly d’Oro | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Zafiro Anejo | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Jumakan Bourbon | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Parish Belle | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Grace’s Secret | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lunch Lady | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Day N the Stars | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Shaolin | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | English Treasure | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Quality Star | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Duvet Day (IRE) | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Red Light Racer | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Joyful Applause | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Under One Sky | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 10 | Pure Country | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Cinq Souers | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Pretty Provocative | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Start Class | 50.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1A | 11 | Take a Stand | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Divine Leader | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Samurai Prince | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Wild Behavior | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Don’t Forget | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lost in Limbo | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | The Queens Jules | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Rolling Fork | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Jungle Juice (IRE) | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Gianna’s Gift | 15.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lovemesomeme | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | She’s a Dime | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Recoded | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Well Spent | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Honorifique | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Murgatroyd | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Perfect Happiness | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Signify | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Southern Mama | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sterling Miss | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mused (GB) | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lemos Cunha | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Thunder Love (GB) | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Chandana | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Alberta Sun | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tonal Impact | 8.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Gulfstream Way | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Speighty War | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Red Knobs | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mr Sippi | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Pledgeofallegiance | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Soros | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hunt the Front | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Amongst Friends | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ready Pursuit | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Burninhunkoflove | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Smokin Willie | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Momentous | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | My Crazy Neighbor | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bourbon Talking | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Respect the Code | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Raymond | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Private Road | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Flirting Bridge (IRE) | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Texas Shuffle | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Aizu | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gambling Cat | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Elle Est Forte | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Flown | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Berate | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fairchild | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Blazing Star (GB) | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Printer’s Row | 12.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Two Sixtyone | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Duplicitous | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Richebourg | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | My Sweet Story | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Laynlomakndough | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Prayforpeace | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Swift Tap | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Big Boss Ben | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blue Kentucky | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Red Label | 30.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Turnsandconditions | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Pure Panic | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hatch | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Micky From Wexford | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Concept | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.