May 22, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Frosted Diamond | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Margarita Time | 15.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ballykeen | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Freudian | 1.60 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Classy Miss | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lunar Ice | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Threave’s Company | 4.50 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | La Tourista | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mizbehaving Sis | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sweet Spin | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bode by You | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Guest in My Heart | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sweet Ginger | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Ridgepointe | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Stud Puppy | 15.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Plemmonston | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Formal Order | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Volbeat | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bronze Beast | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gun Lap | 2.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Ninja Warrior | 10.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rum ‘n Tonic | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | My Grass Is Blue | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Embrace | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Silver Blur | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Honorable Vow | 20.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 |
| 7 | 7 | True Jedi | 1.60 | 12.1 | 23-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Disco | 5.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Division Street | 8.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Cloud Without Rein | 20.00 | 12.9 | 24-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Guest Speaker | 3.00 | 13.2 | 25-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Let My People Go | 4.00 | 13.2 | 25-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Unleash the Power | 12.00 | 17 | 32-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Grantastic | 12.00 | 17 | 32-1 |
| 16 | 16 | Derivative | 5.00 | 17 | 32-1 |
| 17 | 17 | Sinner’s Sin | 4.00 | 17 | 32-1 |
| 15 | 15 | Booyah | 12.00 | 17 | 32-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Stanley Market | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Condiment Girl | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ring Me Darling | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Big Java | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Earley Rose | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Miss Chamita | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Charge the Line | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | My Man Flintstone | 6.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Futile | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | David’s Gem | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Silver Moon Road | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Irish Hokie | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Seau | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Mason A. P. | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Drewzano | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Official Business | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dark Timber | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Flags Up | 2.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Spend Benjamins | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Yes Sir Robert | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tango Charlie | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fair Haired Boy | 2.50 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Common Bond | 12.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Win Worthy | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | El Ahijado | 50.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Jarreau | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Bakwena | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Kuchar | 2.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Arabian Prince | 5.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cool Rags | 12.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hard Rye Guy | 3.50 | 11 | 21-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Verstappen | 10.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
| 3 | 3 | High Deff (FR) | 6.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Blow Torch | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Smarty John | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Per Diem | 15.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | The Judge and Jury | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Acehigh Royal | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Golden Luna | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lucky Devil | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fast Felix | 6.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Our Team | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Kunshan Bridge | 6.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Supremely | 15.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.