May 21, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Naval Aviator | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Carmichael | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Notable Exception | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lemonadeatthelatch | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tonal Impact | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Fabricate | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dallas Volunteer | 4.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Altered Shot | 1.80 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sweet Confusion | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mohaylady | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Runnin Happy | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Whiskey Double | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Pine Knoll | 2.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Megacity | 3.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Street Ready | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Perfect Speighty | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Midnight Tea Time | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dennis’ Moment | 1.60 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Park On the Nile | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Played Hard | 1.20 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sunny Isle Beach | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Casa de Goat | 1.40 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Salute the Flag | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | H. T. Xena | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Hazy Command | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Wings of an Angel | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rookery | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Miner’s Queen | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bombdiggity | 1.80 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fracing Nasty | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Pathetique | 4.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Hey There | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Honorably | 10.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Musical Design | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Beautiful Farewell | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Most Empressive | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ms Merrabel | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Leave It Be | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Jalebi Baby | 50.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Broadway Blaze | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Wings Like Eagles | 15.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Air of Authority | 10.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Stage Queen | 10.00 | 13.7 | 26-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Jazz Time Girl | 10.00 | 17 | 32-1 |
| 15 | 15 | Shades of Blue | 30.00 | 17 | 32-1 |
| 17 | 17 | Little Mombo | 2.50 | 17 | 32-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Little Jewel | 15.00 | 17 | 32-1 |
| 16 | 16 | Lady Pele | 6.00 | 17 | 32-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | On the Rise | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Coco Puff | 5.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Shes Greekandsleek | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lady Terra | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | She’s Rednecker | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Olivia’s Joy | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Wicked Lady | 5.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Super Christie | 4.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Runnin’ Ray | 0.80 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lord Dragon | 5.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ballinonabudjet | 5.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | My Bets | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Zanesville | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | My Bariley | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | The Stiff | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Eskenforit | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Creative Miracle | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Pancake House | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Deep State | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Mizzen Man | 30.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Good Soldier | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Classic Mark | 3.50 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kansas Comet | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Thought | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Kentucky Mist | 30.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Maqamat | 20.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
| 6 | 6 | A Late One | 15.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Shipman | 20.00 | 13.6 | 26-1 |
| 17 | 17 | Supercool | 3.00 | 17 | 32-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Blue Devil | 4.00 | 17 | 32-1 |
| 16 | 16 | Polsar | 15.00 | 17 | 32-1 |
| 15 | 15 | The Clown | 20.00 | 17 | 32-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Sailor’s Return | 15.00 | 17 | 32-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | American Pure | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Bodock | 6.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rattle N Roll | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 6 | Howling Time | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 7 | Clancy’s Pistol | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 8 | Droppin G’s | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 2 | Brooklyn Diamonds | 3.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 1A | 5 | Kuchar | 3.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Louisville S.) – Louisville S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Strong Tide | 10.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Another Mystery | 6.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Highest Honors | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bama Breeze | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Camp Hope | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Shamrocket | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Reigning Spirit | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ajourneytofreedom | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cibolian | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Cellist | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Blanket of Roses | 50.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cavalry Charge | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Cullum Road | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Modus Operandi (IRE) | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 15 | 15 | Celerity | 50.00 | 15 | 28-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.