May 19, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Roman Giant | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cadillac Candy | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Island Swagger | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Seismic Spirit (IRE) | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Reason’s Legacy | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hezmorethanready | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Starstriker (GB) | 4.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Jeremy’s Jet | 12.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Tivy | 3.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Alcazaba (IRE) | 12.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Oiler | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Keen Heir | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Go Virtual | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ox Doc | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Silvestre | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bad Blood | 4.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Aly Stone | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Pinky Toe | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Muted | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Let’s Be Clear | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Parlance | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Chi Town Lady | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sunday Grace | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Sweet Beauty | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Gin N Sin | 10.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Jewelofakid | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | M M M My Sharoana | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | America’s Pride | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bumper Girl | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | McMansion | 8.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Yellow Creek Road | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | Lord Zed | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 9 | Nineties Country | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Lucky Boss | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | King Tuff | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Stockpiler | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Brit’s Wit | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Just Say When | 3.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 10 | Doctor Love | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 1A | 8 | Wicked Genius | 2.50 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 5 | 4 | Maximum Impact | 12.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Ferociously | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Baby Quinn | 2.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Belfast Boy | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blame George | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Can Man Do | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Baytown Warrior | 30.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Graywing | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | India Ink | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Lashara (GB) | 12.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Gladys | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Urban Fairytale | 10.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Jezebel’s Kitten | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Flatter Me Silly | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sunny One | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Longpants Required | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Forever Dreaming | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Fair Game | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Vezpa (BRZ) | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cafe Fleur (FR) | 5.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Russian Mafia | 15.00 | 13 | 25-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Undisturbed | 12.00 | 13 | 25-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Catwings | 8.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Royal Flower | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Comedy Act | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Texas Melody | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Cocoa Colada | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Dontgetabovuraisin | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Eivissa | 2.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 4 | Hope and Dreams | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Shezapistol | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 1A | 11 | Sunny River | 2.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 6 | Swift Thinker | 2.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.