May 15, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cairo Driver | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Eclipsed | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Moon Over Tuscany | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kiss Me Smile | 2.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | J Zertz | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | T. K.’s Joker | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Tim Tal | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sosua Summer | 1.60 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Faith Runner | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Touch Code | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tempo Madness | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Chasing the Crown | 3.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Frontal Assault | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Tepeu | 4.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Corrente de Ouro | 30.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dini d’Amore | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Spuns Son | 30.00 | 11.2 | 21-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Old Hickory | 15.00 | 12.2 | 23-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Trumpets Blare | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Wiking | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Blue Devil | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Bad to the Bones | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Best Bet | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Family Man | 1.80 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 2 | English Challenge | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Eagle Pass | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tiz Light the Way | 1.40 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Bobby Baby | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | To Kalon | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 1A | 7 | Youvesaiditall | 3.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Brown Delivers | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Master Lea | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Carnivore | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Isthmian | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Proud Union | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Prince of Glory | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dover Strait | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Winter’s Ghost | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bright Spark | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Beach Holiday | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Bout Time | 4.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Only Kidding | 4.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Commanders Palace | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Cruz Bay | 6.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lady Danae | 8.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Kona Kai | 15.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sand and Sea | 3.50 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sparkle of Hope | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Social Mandate | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Nota Bene | 15.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Giverny | 6.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Blazing Summer | 20.00 | 12.4 | 23-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Her World (IRE) | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Miner’s Queen | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Pathetique | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Iron Lady Away | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Defender | 1.40 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fore Left | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ournationonparade | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Established | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | C Falls | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fact Finding | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Hemp Heaven | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Kitodan | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Play Action Pass | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Freedom’s Way | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 9 | St Andrews | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Britain’s Kitten | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mr. Bouma | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Gold Heritage | 12.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Maximum Impact | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Maintainer | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Double Clutch | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Setna the Wise | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Best Actor | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 13 | Brooklyn Diamonds | 6.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Soup and Sandwich | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Divine Leader | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Coltonator | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Prime Factor | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Therideofalifetime | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Briefcase Bully | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Savvy | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Violent City | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Spare Cash | 1.60 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Madelyn’s Magic | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Spring Magic | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Elle of the Ball | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Macadamia (FR) | 6.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sacred Kitten | 8.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Get By | 15.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | What’s to Do | 15.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Ragtime Belle | 12.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Neck On the Nile | 12.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Moudari | 12.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Todo Sola | 20.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Girl Come Running | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Pretty Provocative | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Reverb | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Mindful | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.