May 13, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Incitatus | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pretty Boy Elm | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Jingle | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Battle Creek | 1.80 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Icecap | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | O Cigano | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Dazzlingdominika | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Old School Flash | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Janet Is Ready | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Catcha Later Mo | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Phunk | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ski Slope | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Shesthebiggame | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Vicki Rose | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | K C Mo | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Jazzy Lady | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ancient Brown | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Jump Into the Fire | 0.80 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sense You Left | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Singsong Bird | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Malibu Marlee | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Hawk of War | 1.60 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Courageously | 1.80 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Optimus Kat | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Uninvited Guest | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Epimythium | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Of the Moment | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Carmel Bay | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Malibu Time | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Kevalar | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Teewinot Pass | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cindy’s Storm | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hickory Court | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Jackys Back | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fotheringay | 2.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bluebank | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Major Cam | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Keep On | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Yes to Mischief | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | A Paycheque Smile | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Four Dawn | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | My Coralena | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | High Fair | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Zmuda | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Thirteen Stripes | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ipsum Gratus | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | More Romance | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Hashtag No Wonder | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kerouac | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | World Cruiser | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | McGolden | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Habitus | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Rule the Empire | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Gullane | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rio King | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Lolas Beau | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tolkien | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Promise Keeper | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Buck Moon | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Major Fed | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Masqueparade | 3.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Big Lake | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Twilight Blue | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Colonelsdarktemper | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Farmington Road | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Taishan | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | My Sixth Sense | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Out Work’n | 3.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Moon Mischief | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Hometown Hero | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Popster | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | He’s a Keeper | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Offutt Cole | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lend It Tewmey | 4.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ferocity | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Better Dasher | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Congrats to Mi | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | East of India | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Amazing Rocket | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Bernie’s Weekend | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.