May 7, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Congressman | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Gasoline | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 11 | 11 | King Ottoman | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Montauk Point | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Logico | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Malibu S S | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Vinco | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 15 | 15 | Per Diem | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Supercool | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Warrior Johny | 3.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Unleash the Power | 12.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sargent Lee | 12.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Spuns Son | 30.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Curlin Lane | 30.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Papa Rocket | 30.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Great Escape | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Stayed in for Half | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Surfer Dude | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cathedral Beach | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ignitis | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Osbourne | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Buckingham Prince | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Pure Panic | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Unpredictable Bay | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Micky From Wexford | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Community Adjusted | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Talking Book | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Played Hard | 2.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Queen Bourbon | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lady Rockstar (GB) | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Stepper | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Final Belle | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ready Lady | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Two Sixtyone | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Myfavoritedaughter | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Money Supply | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mendenhall | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Cover Me Up | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 6 | McLaren Vale | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Emirates Road | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Bye Bye Bobby | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1A | 15 | Varatti | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Curly Tail | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 5 | Creative Minister | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Leslie Chow | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 4 | O P Firecracker | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 11 | 11 | American Sanctuary | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Red Knobs | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Gunfighter | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Summer in Malibu | 20.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Speak of the Devil (FR) | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wakanaka (IRE) | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lady Speightspeare | 2.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | In Italian (GB) | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Flower Point | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | She Can’t Sing | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Abscond | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mona Stella | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Knicks Go Overnight S. Presented By L&n Federal Credit Union
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | South Bend | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Gun It | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | A C Expressway | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dream Shake | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shared Sense | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Injunction | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Endorsed | 12.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Perfect Speighty | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Necker Island | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Frosted Grace | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Major Fed | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Three Technique | 30.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Pat Day Mile S. Presented By Lg&e And Ku
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Major General | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Jack Christopher | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 11 | 11 | My Prankster | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Pappacap | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Doppelganger | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ben Diesel | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 12 | 12 | O Captain | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tejano Twist | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Kavod | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Trademark | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Trafalgar | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Howling Time | 30.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Derby City Distaff S. Presented By Kendall-jackson Winery
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Obligatory | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lady Rocket | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Just One Time | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kimari | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Edgeway | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Center Aisle | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bell’s the One | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Four Graces | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – American Turf S. Presented By Bmw
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Portfolio Company | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sy Dog | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Main Event | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Balnikhov (IRE) | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Red Danger | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Stolen Base | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Coinage | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Royal Spirit | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Smokin’ T | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Dowagiac Chief | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Red Run | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Churchill Downs S. Presented By Ford
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Reinvestment Risk | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Cezanne | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Aloha West | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Jackie’s Warrior | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Long Range Toddy | 30.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mind Control | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sir Alfred James | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Prevalence | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Adhamo (IRE) | 4.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tribhuvan (FR) | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Shirl’s Speight | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Public Sector (GB) | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bizzee Channel | 30.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Santin | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cavalry Charge | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ivar (BRZ) | 4.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mira Mission | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Kentucky Ghost | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Stakes) – Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Zandon | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mo Donegal | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Epicenter | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Charge It | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 19 | 19 | Zozos | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Taiba | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Messier | 8.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 15 | 15 | White Abarrio | 10.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Pioneer of Medina | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 16 | 16 | Cyberknife | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Simplification | 20.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Barber Road | 30.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 |
| 18 | 18 | Tawny Port | 30.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 |
| 21 | 21 | Rich Strike | 30.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Tiz the Bomb | 30.00 | 13.6 | 26-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Crown Pride (JPN) | 20.00 | 15.4 | 29-1 |
| 22 | 22 | Rattle N Roll | 30.00 | 15.5 | 29-1 |
| 17 | 17 | Classic Causeway | 30.00 | 16.7 | 32-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Smile Happy | 20.00 | 16.8 | 32-1 |
| 20 | 20 | Ethereal Road | 30.00 | 16.8 | 32-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Happy Jack | 30.00 | 16.9 | 32-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Summer Is Tomorrow | 30.00 | 17.3 | 33-1 |
RACE NUMBER 13 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Militarist | 4.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 5 | Candy Tycoon | 4.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 6 | Storm the Court | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Keystone Field | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Soup and Sandwich | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Rising Empire | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Laughing Boy | 6.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 1A | 14 | Payne | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 4 | Treasury | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Koufax | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Who’s the Star | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 7 | Starrininmydreams | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Life Is Hard | 6.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 1 | 9 | Fan Club | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 14 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Elite Power | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ludwig | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Top of the Charts | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Strobe | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Bourbon Heist | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Blow Torch | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Master Game | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Improbable Journey | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | The Judge and Jury | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | My Brother Cam | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Timehascome | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Master of Arms | 8.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Conspiracy Fact | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lucky Devil | 30.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.