May 4, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | I’m Stylin | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cycologist | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hannah’s Haven | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Roses for Ashley | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | My Daddy’s Trainer | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hush Hush | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sonador | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 9 | Classical | 1.60 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bling Bling Bling | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Two of a Kind | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Hardmoneymuchachos | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Book of Kells | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cigarette Boat | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mo’s Treasure | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Abinadi | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 5 | Ever a Rebel | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Westward Look | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Yes Sir Robert | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Majestic West | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Incitatus | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Z U At the Races | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Desoto’s War | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Smarty John | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Edge of Glory | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Jonas’ Dream | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | C J All the Way | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bernie Lomax | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Right of Rush | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Onyourmarkgetsetgo | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Curiously | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Red Light Racer | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | English Treasure | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Al Qahira | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Amenset | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Fits the Jill | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Determined Gold | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 8 | Pure Country | 5.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Joyful Applause | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 1A | 16 | High Resolution | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Spring Magic | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Personal Best | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Quaria Thunder | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Winter Music | 30.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Quality Star | 20.00 | 11.2 | 21-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Colonel Aby B | 30.00 | 12.9 | 24-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Fair Haired Boy | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Mr Sippi | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Silk Trade | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1A | 4 | Money Mike | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Kissalot | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Soros | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Extreme | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Cryo | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Smokin Willie | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bagboss | 1.40 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Milliken | 1.60 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Speight’spercomete | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Schmoozin | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Burninhunkoflove | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Run Run Rapidash | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – St. Matthews Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1 | Bango | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Quick Tempo | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Tulane Tryst | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Tiger Dad | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Top Gunner | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Manny Wah | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Just Might | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | A C Expressway | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Sir Alfred James | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Baby Yoda | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – William Walker S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Big Invasion | 1.80 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Millennial Moon (GB) | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Candy Landing | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Lucci | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Run Curtis Run | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Sooley | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | B D Valeski | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Magnolia Midnight | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Asymmetric (IRE) | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Byzantine | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Opening Night | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | A’bouzy | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Butterbean | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ahh Mazing | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Late Night Lady | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Just a Nyquist | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lead Me | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gin N Sin | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.