May 3, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Earley Rose | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Dunvegan Doll | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Margarita Time | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Freudian | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 6 | Candywrapper Crazy | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Daniella’s Cause | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Start Class | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1A | 7 | Chopin Drive | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Stakes) – Isaac Murphy Marathon Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Current | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tenfold | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lone Rock | 0.60 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hozier | 10.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Celerity | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Supertaleofhoudini | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Super Wonder Girl | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bertrada | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mohaylady | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Risata | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lucky Lauren | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Floris | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Regal Retort | 1.60 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Recoded | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Remain Anonymous | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dance Rhythms | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Larimar | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Xtrema | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 3 | Millefeuille | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 4 | Super Chianti | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 6 | High Fashion | 4.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 5 | Laynlomakndough | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 2 | Blazing Star (GB) | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 1 | If You Please | 20.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mun Luv | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Flirting Bridge (IRE) | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Gambling Cat | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Berate | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Euphima (ARG) | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Breaker of Chains | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Teo | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Naval Officer | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Baby Quinn | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Joyful Candy | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Leagal | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lunar Rocket | 3.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Stubbornkindafella | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Officer Nick | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 10 | Gate Runner | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 4 | Pioneering Spirit | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 7 | Curbstone | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 9 | One More Baby | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 8 | Deputy Connect | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 5 | Consulate | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 1A | 6 | Jeeper | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Madison Luvs Duke | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Cryptic Code | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Scattershack | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 5 | Night Time | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 1 | On Your Mark | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 4 | Thanks Mr. Eidson | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 3 | Coltonator | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 6 | Verb | 3.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1A | 2 | Jammers Justice | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Gallant Guy | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | City Drifter | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Strike Me Down | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Field Day | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Divine Leader | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Bad Beat Brian | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 11 | League of Shadows | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Aura | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sariah Sariah | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Enchanted Nile | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Strollin the Bayou | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Funnybet | 3.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Malibu Marlee | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Matt’s Honey | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kimberley Dream | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.