Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, April 28, 2022

April 28, 2022 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


Try SFTB Plus for Free

$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.

Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!

Learn More

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 9 No Nay Hudson (IRE) 1.80 1 2-1
5 7 Ashcroft 2.50 1.5 3-1
4 5 The Big Wam 3.50 3.4 6-1
6 8 Top of My Game 4.50 3.5 7-1
2B 4 Spurs Up 10.00 6 11-1
1A 6 Baytown Get It On 12.00 6.7 13-1
3 2 Tia Frida 20.00 7 13-1
1 1 Baytown Melody 12.00 SCRATCH
2 3 Tustler 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Liberty Hall 8.00 1.6 3-1
11 11 Uncle Headley 4.00 1.7 3-1
10 10 Wico (IRE) 2.50 2.5 5-1
7 7 Roman Giant 12.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Andthewinneris 6.00 2.9 5-1
12 12 Undalay 6.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Cadillac Candy 8.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Bourbon Therapy 12.00 4.5 9-1
8 8 Mabuhay 15.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 I Am Freaky Fast 20.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Revere Note 30.00 9.3 17-1
6 6 Study Committee 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Hope and Dignity 1.60 1.8 3-1
3 3 Sag Harbor 5.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 English Tide 15.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Quick Return 8.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Sir Giannis 3.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Santa Cruiser 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Dame Cinco 3.00 2.3 4-1
8 6 Nana’s Gray 6.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Smile At the Storm 5.00 4 8-1
4 3 Sofia Strong 6.00 4.2 8-1
3 2 World of Wonder 6.00 4.3 8-1
7 5 High Fair 5.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 J Zertz 12.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Gigablast 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 American Starlet 4.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 Castle Leoch 3.00 2.5 5-1
7 6 Jura 5.00 3.8 7-1
4 3 Casanova Kitten 4.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Switzer 10.00 4 8-1
9 8 Uber Kirk 15.00 5.7 11-1
5 4 Cut Glass 10.00 5.9 11-1
10 9 Thirsty Owl 30.00 7.6 14-1
6 5 Baytown Warrior 20.00 8.6 16-1
3 3 Gold Heritage 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 4 Patna 4.50 2.2 4-1
6 5 Quaria Comet 10.00 2.9 5-1
12 10 Beauxs Artes 4.00 3.7 7-1
1A 11 Chaberton 4.50 3.8 7-1
4 2 Pillbox 5.00 3.9 7-1
2 1 Smugness 12.00 4.7 9-1
10 9 Quist and Shout 5.00 5.5 10-1
7 6 Alessia 20.00 7.4 14-1
5 3 One Time Mo 10.00 7.8 15-1
9 8 Silencing 12.00 8 15-1
8 7 Speightsy Hot 30.00 10 19-1
3 2 Ladybelucky 10.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Ulikeapples 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Beside Herself 3.50 3.6 7-1
2 1 Bravo Kitten 3.00 4 7-1
12 12 Pearl Earring 10.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Two Socks (IRE) 12.00 4.8 9-1
10 10 Whenthedawnbreaks 10.00 5.9 11-1
1 2 Shad Nation 4.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Cecilita 30.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Lavish Habits 6.00 7.5 14-1
8 8 Honey Run 20.00 7.7 15-1
9 9 Myfavoritedaughter 10.00 9.9 19-1
1A 13 Schlofmitz 4.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Amani’s Image 20.00 11.4 21-1
6 6 Memphis Cash Queen 30.00 12.3 23-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Union Maiden 4.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Novel Squall 3.00 4.2 8-1
6 4 Music City Star 4.50 5 9-1
4 3 Thundering Creed 5.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Red Ghost 2.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Skinny Dip 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 5 Polyglot 4.00 3.1 6-1
14 12 Three Wolves 15.00 3.5 7-1
9 7 Calrissian 8.00 3.8 7-1
10 8 City Legend 6.00 4.2 8-1
5 4 Lord Zed 5.00 6.2 12-1
12 10 Simply Jack 8.00 6.4 12-1
4 3 Sticky Issue 5.00 7.7 14-1
11 9 Ardanwood 12.00 8 15-1
2 1 Kalakaua 30.00 9.6 18-1
1 1 Blue Devil 4.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Mighty Sea 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Deep State 6.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Summer Anthem 12.00 SCRATCH
8 6 Livingstone 15.00 10.2 19-1
13 11 Shannonrun 30.00 12 23-1
3 2 Aquacat 30.00 12.3 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.