April 27, 2022 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Princess Renee | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Smokin Hot Bobbie | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ancient Brown | 2.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Especially You | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Kitty’s Promise | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bow Maker | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Federalist Papers | 1.40 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Met in Miami | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bella Conchita | 1.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Three Tipsy Chix | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Noble Enterprise | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Good Measure | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | My Bariley | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bless the Kitten | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ballinonabudjet | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fortune’s Fool | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hemp Heaven | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Chardy Party (IRE) | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Doozy Batz | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Georgetown Road | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Devious | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hey There | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Reverb | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Leave It Be | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Never At All (FR) | 10.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Xtreme Gem | 6.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Strawberrylemonade | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Vinegar Veggies | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Sis Boom Bob | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Ladybelucky | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Most Empressive | 30.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Trouble Making | 15.00 | 11.9 | 23-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Peligroso | 20.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Nosilverspoonshere | 5.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Coco Puff | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | American Heights | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Darene | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Shaolin | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sonoma County | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Beautiful Farewell | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | West Love | 8.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Nibbles | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Jumakan Bourbon | 10.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Midnightmakessense | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Point Me By | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Absam | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Be Here | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Floriform | 3.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Skyro | 4.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Palazzi | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 8 | Cellist | 3.50 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Monition | 12.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Buy Me Candy | 12.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 1A | 15 | Tango Tango Tango | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Shackleford’s Joy | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Mutakatif (IRE) | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 16 | Koufax | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Continental Coins | 20.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Good Juju | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Leblon | 20.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Down Cold | 1.80 | 0.9 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bureau | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Silent Disco | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Maximum Impact | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Expensive Cut | 3.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Diva Ready | 6.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | American Pyramid | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lotta Roses | 20.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Saffron Moon | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Spare Cash | 2.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Amelia’s Map | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Honeycomb | 6.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Under One Sky | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Miss Susie R | 30.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Get By | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Fits the Jill | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Quaria Brava | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Aboukir Bay | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Robin’s Fantasy | 20.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Izzy Em | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Take Joy | 15.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.