April 24, 2022 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | John’s Protege | 2.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Official Business | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | R You Awake | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Wind At My Back | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Robust | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Taffin | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hometown Hero | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Poker Play | 10.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mountain Ghost | 10.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Stavanger | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hickory Court | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Teewinot Pass | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Get Us One | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rogue Element | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Tonkawa Springs | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Dover Strait | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Memphis Prayer | 8.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | National Security | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Gogees | 30.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Jarreau | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | McLovin | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cool Rags | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Common Bond | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Danville | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Scales of Justice | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | High Deff (FR) | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hard Rye Guy | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Exulting | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Criminal Defense | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Can’t Hide From Me | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Suggested | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hidden Promise | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Markitoff | 6.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Indian Gulch | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Niagara Gold | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Peter’s Kitten | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sweet Serenade | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Postnup | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Poca Mucha | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Vezpa (BRZ) | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kestenna (GB) | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Undisturbed | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fair Game | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sunny One | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Discreet Kitty | 30.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Speightful Charge | 4.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fabricate | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Blossom Road | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Myeerah | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fire On Time | 1.80 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hostile Princess | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sum Kinda Pretty | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Haunt | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 7 | Mr. Hustle | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Turned Aside | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Into the Sunrise | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Maven | 3.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bodenheimer | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Seven Scents | 4.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | High Crime | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Natural Power (IRE) | 6.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Oceanic | 8.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 1A | 16 | Bad Beat Brian | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Elusive Mischief | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Divine Leader | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Jammers Justice | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Bullseye Beauty | 12.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Inhalation (GB) | 12.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Exact Estimate | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kingmaker | 4.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | B Dawk | 5.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Guest Speaker | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Thought | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Gullane | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Anarchist | 4.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | G Flat | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kentucky Mist | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Big Hello | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Eleggua | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Abscond | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Petricor (GB) | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Jezebel’s Kitten | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Amiche | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lashara (GB) | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Flatter Me Silly | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Forever Dreaming | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Urban Fairytale | 6.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gote Go | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Queen of the Green | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.