April 20, 2022 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | American Smooth | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Picasso | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Savoy | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fightville | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Perfect Painting | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Midnight J J | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | El Piquin | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Mighty Matt | 5.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Go Virtual | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Stubbornkindafella | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mr Ghost | 30.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Prince of Glory | 12.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Alfio | 12.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Southern Sense | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bayou Shack | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Drum and Bass | 4.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Oxwood | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Joyful Candy | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Roderick | 3.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Super Comet | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | He’s in Charge | 2.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Carmel Bay | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | King’s Ovation | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | King’s Mischief | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Grove Daddy | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 3 | Talkin Pharoah | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Abinadi | 4.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Simply Super | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Sergeant Countzler | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Mariachi Crush | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Baytown Get It On | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Late September | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 10 | Bourbon Therapy | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 14 | Hill of Tara | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 13 | Putthepastbehind | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2B | 15 | Dontinvademyspace | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 3 | Spurs Up | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 5 | Magic Tap | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 12 | Tasterfor the King | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 8 | Revere Note | 30.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Youens | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Golden Voice | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Runaway Rockette | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Hat Tip | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Dreamful | 3.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fracing Nasty | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Mymatemarmite (GB) | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Now Yus Cant Leave | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Hohohoho | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 10 | Freedom Bound | 12.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Cuzzywuzzy | 12.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Silky Warrior (IRE) | 6.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Viburnum | 8.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Aizu | 10.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Graywing | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Captain Fantastic | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Drop Anchor | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Barstow | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Kobe B | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Beep Beep | 2.50 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Haney Boys | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Notable Exception | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 9 | 9 | El Segundo | 15.00 | 8.7 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Camp Hope | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Like the King | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | T D Dance | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Glynn County | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Greyes Creek | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Beacon Hill | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Invader | 8.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Pine Knoll | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fancy Liquor | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Dyn O Mite | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Get Her Number | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Kentucky Ghost | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Spanish Kingdom | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Argentello (IRE) | 10.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Street Ready | 30.00 | 13.4 | 25-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Bruce On the Loose | 12.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Art Heist | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fully Connected | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Isthmian | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Hearns | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Lunar Rocket | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Congrats to Mi | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kennedy’s Beau | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lapis Lazuli | 4.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kevalar | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Right of Rush | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.