April 16, 2022 Santa Anita Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Cool Acclaim | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dark Marcus | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Just About Enough | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Blue Star | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mogollon Rim | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Attenzione | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fore Flag | 4.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Elector | 1.60 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | McLaren Vale | 1.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Brutto | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Zimba Warrior | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rifey | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rookie Mistake | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Song of Fire | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Starship Sky | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | St Helena | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Here Comes Ralphie | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lookin So Lucky | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Wild Arch | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | A Thousand Dreams | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Happy Runner | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Vetoed | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Maxim Moment | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Houndstooth | 1.80 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Belmont Bill | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tahoe Secrets | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Doitforandrew (GB) | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Baladi | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | War At Sea | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shut Up Michael (IRE) | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Barsabas | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | St Anthony | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Arrabiata | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Echosmith (IRE) | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tequila Tigre | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sweet California | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Warren’s Queen Bee | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Good Boo Joo | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Lyinatthebar | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dreamer Girl | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Steel Nerves | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Paleo’s Princess | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Alex’s Girl | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sheila’s Charlie | 50.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bossy Pegasus | 50.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Liberal (IRE) | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fly the Sky | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dubby Dubbie | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Irish Heatwave | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Big Buzz | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Frontier Market | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Niles Channel | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hoop Dream | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Li’l Grazen | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Increase Stakes | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dannybob | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Smilin Evie | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Liberalism | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | It’s Simple | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Smoothlikebuttah | 5.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Keep Your Coil | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Righteously | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Respectfully | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Hong Kong Harry (IRE) | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cash Equity (FR) | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Henley’s Joy | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Irideo (ARG) | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Moody Jim (IRE) | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Comradery (IRE) | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Flashiest | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Hero Status | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Bletchley Park | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Breakfast Ride | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Troubadour | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Famous Star | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Special Ride | 3.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Swindler | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Tenth Street Don | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Practical Impact | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Palagio | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | The Giants Candy | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.