April 15, 2022 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Frolic More | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | First Deputy | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Stay Home | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | High Heater | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jammers Justice | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bobby Baby | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fredericktown | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Improbable Story | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Airwar | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Personal Best | 8.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Meant to Be | 10.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Paris Paramour | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Willakia | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | I’m Glad (IRE) | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bella Morning | 50.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Western Lane | 3.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Macadamia (FR) | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | She’s Gone | 5.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Quality Star | 10.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bedtime for Buffy | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Lost Bikini | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Pharoah’s Song | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Walkathon | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Surely (FR) | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Madelyn’s Magic | 8.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Sonic City | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Full Charge | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dreaming of Gerry | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tonal Impact | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Carillo | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bern N Ash | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | The Peninsula | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Maximum Impact | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Blue Jays | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Perfect Cut | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Guillaume | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fair Haired Boy | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Fan Club | 2.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cousin Larry | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mobster Gun | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Twenty Twice | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Ocean Road (IRE) | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Flown | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lucy’s Cakes Fly | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Final Belle | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Talking Book | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Laynlomakndough | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Queen Bourbon | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Texas Shuffle | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Scarabea | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Major Fed | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mystic Night | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Enforceable | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Farmington Road | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | War Stopper | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mischief Afoot | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Concert Tour | 2.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Beaver Hat | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Tvg Limestone S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Derrynane | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Her World (IRE) | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Unbridled Mary | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ruthin (GB) | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Gun Boat | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Lost My Sock | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sin City Gal | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Thunder Love (GB) | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kaufymaker | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Fast Corey | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 4 | Tiz Splendid News | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Regal Retort | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Honorifique | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Zainalarab | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Fraudulent Charge | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Front Street | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Farsighted | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Bees and Honey | 3.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fire On Time | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Razor Glass | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Brattle House | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Recoded | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Jungle Juice (IRE) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 8 | Liberty M D | 12.00 | 11.4 | 22-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Winward Flo | 30.00 | 14.6 | 28-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Maker’s Mark Mile S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Masen (GB) | 5.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Smooth Like Strait | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Count Again | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Atone | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Shirl’s Speight | 50.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Set Piece (GB) | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | In Love (BRZ) | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Mira Mission | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ivar (BRZ) | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Somelikeithotbrown | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Public Sector (GB) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Veronica Greene | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Regal Realm | 5.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Oma the Great | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Super Christie | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | An Apple a Day | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Surcharge | 20.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Jetinwithclass | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Jalebi Baby | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Napa Candy | 4.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dontgetabovuraisin | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sis Boom Bob | 15.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Be Tough | 50.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Sweet Baby Ray | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Estole | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Kendall Spirit | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.