April 14, 2022 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2B | 8 | Hurricane Debbie | 1.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Double Overtime | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1A | 5 | Recio’s Baytown | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 9 | Becky Thatcher | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 6 | Ski Slope | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Baytown Melody | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Rosa de Ruby | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 3 | Devious Stares | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | All the Envy | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Talk Radio | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sariah Sariah | 1.60 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ancient Brown | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Kimberley Dream | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | My Wynter Rose | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Carry On | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Matt’s Honey | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | A Little Flyer | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Positive Vibes | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Feast | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Windy City Red | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Templet | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Alfie Solomons | 1.60 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Yes Sir Robert | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Z U At the Races | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sir Nuisance | 50.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Incitatus | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Baby Yoda | 1.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Family Man | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Beverly Park | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Thirsty Betrayal | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Crime Spree | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | One for Richie | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Franco’s Team | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Nabokov | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ratification | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Chargeittothegame | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Prize Fighter | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lofty Adjudicator | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Runpat | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | He’s a Keeper | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | East to the Dawn | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sprinklehead | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Renaissance (IRE) | 8.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bravo Kitten | 8.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Oakhurst | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Maxine Machine | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | I Got a Gal | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ready Lady | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lolloping | 6.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Take the Backroads | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | I’m So Sorry | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Myfavoritedaughter | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Eminent Victor | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Get Serious | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 10 | Protomagic | 50.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Legerity | 10.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Stepper | 15.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Queen Judith | 15.00 | 11.9 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Zippin Gigi | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | American Hero | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Yono | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blue Kentucky | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wicked Genius | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Whatstheconnection | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Expensive Cut | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Norma Jean B. | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fluffy Socks | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pass the Plate | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Curly Ruth | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Princess Causeway | 3.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Temple City Terror | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Core Values | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Misty Veil | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cape Trafalgar | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Brigadier General | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Classic Mark | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Warrior Johny | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | The Gatekeeper | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Two Birds | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Flocked | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Hippodrome | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Beach Holiday | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Versatile | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.