April 13, 2022 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Mr. Gordy | 10.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Alibi Ike | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ryvit | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Twist of Faith | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Top of My Game | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lone Leader | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tia Frida | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Olczyk | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | California Flirt | 12.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Brown Delivers | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Make Way | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Nepotism | 1.40 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Vital Signs | 50.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Brody’s Fly | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Jedrek | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tolkien | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tricolour | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Big Paper | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Bluebank | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | A Lot of Spunk | 12.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | La Tourista | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Frills | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Destiny’s Darling | 30.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Russian Roulette | 2.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | War Empress | 4.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kitty’s Promise | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Delta Gamma Cats | 3.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Dulcimer Dame | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Charging Lady | 8.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Aaliyah Ezri | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Merci Road | 12.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Steal My Sunshine | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Runaway Wife | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Surf Ballroom | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | One Full Moon | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Little Blaze | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | West Love | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Be Like Water | 6.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ride the Plan | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Conagher | 20.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Varatti | 4.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sky and Sand | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sisaway Now | 20.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Overbore | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Buckingham Prince | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Unpredictable Bay | 5.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | India Ink | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Micky From Wexford | 10.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Underhill’s Tab | 4.50 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Kissalot | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
| 8 | 8 | La Belleza Negra | 6.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | King Vega (GB) | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Win Worthy | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Landbiscuit | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Aviano | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Courageously | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cool Rags | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Danville | 6.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Arabian Prince | 4.50 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Carillo | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Hemp Heaven | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | El Kabong | 8.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Militarist | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Pirate’s Punch | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Who’s the Star | 12.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Portos | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Winter Pool | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Buck Moon | 12.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Stage Raider | 3.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Laughing Boy | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hidden Stash | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Ghostlore | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Dream Music | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Santa Elena | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mercy Warren | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Runnin Happy | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Risata | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Annagangsta | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Thefabulous Moolah | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | J Zertz | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Magniloquent | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.